000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100936 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU MAR 10 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 1.5S107W ALONG 00N120W 00N127W TO BEYOND 2S140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 126W AND 130W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS NE OF THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 5N96W ALONG 3N97W TO 0.5N98W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N TO 6N E OF TROUGH TO 92W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UNUSUALLY STRONG DEEP LAYERED LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALES WITH A STRONG MID TO UPPER TROUGH MOVING SE ACROSS MEXICO TONIGHT. THE LEADING COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND S MEXICO WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERING THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 16N97W TO 11N101W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO SUPPORTING AN OCCLUDED FRONT WITH A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 18N102W ALONG 13N107W TO 11N117W. THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WERE REPORTED ON WED ACROSS CENTRAL INTERIOR MEXICO NEAR THE SECOND COLD FRONT WITH PATCHES OF ACTIVITY STILL BEING REPORTED. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT E ACROSS MEXICO THROUGH FRI BEFORE LIFTING NE TO OVER THE S/CENTRAL CONUS FRI NIGHT. THIS WILL DRAG THE SECOND COLD FRONT ACROSS MEXICO WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO TO A SURFACE TROUGH LATE FRI. OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS OFFSHORE OF MEXICO...STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE GRADUALLY DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH NW WINDS 20 KT EXCEPT FOR NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND WITHIN 150 NM OF THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM 23N-27N. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH SEAS IN LARGE NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS NW OF THE FRONT...WITH SEAS GENERALLY 9-13 FT NW OF THE FRONT...BETWEEN 125W AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. HIGH SEAS ACROSS THE OUTSIDE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS THE SWELL MOVES SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE TROPICS...SUBSIDING TO 8-10 FT BETWEEN 120W AND THE MEXICAN COASTLINE N OF 20N BY THU AFTERNOON...AND TO 6-8 FT BY FRI AFTERNOON. VERY LARGE SURF AND DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MEXICAN COASTLINE THROUGH THU MORNING. NW OF THE FRONT...A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 28N124W AND EXTENDS A BROAD RIDGE SE TO NEAR 16N112W AND ALSO W- SW TO BEYOND 21N137W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE S OF THE RIDGE IS SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FRESH NE TO E TRADE WINDS GENERALLY FROM 03N TO 21N W OF 115W. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 9 TO 10 FT ACROSS THIS AREA IN PREDOMINANTLY NW SWELL. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...REDUCING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...THUS DECREASING THE WINDS TO MODERATE TO FRESH WITH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT. THESE FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL RETURN FRI AFTERNOON SPREADING E INTO SAT. A NEW COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA TONIGHT EXTENDS FROM 32N132W TO BEYOND 24N140W. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THIS FRONT N OF 28N WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH FRI AS A STRONGER REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION THU AFTERNOON AND WILL MERGE WITH THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT ON FRI. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND SWELL WILL BUILD SEAS TO 16 FT BEHIND THIS REINFORCING FRONT. $$ PAW