000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100332 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU MAR 10 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N91W TO 01N107W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 01N110W TO01N124W TO BEYOND 02S140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 03.5N TO 06.5N BETWEEN 91W AND 96W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 04S TO 01N W OF 133W TO BEYOND 140W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UNUSUALLY STRONG MID TO UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SW U.S. THIS EVENING. A VIGOROUS DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN DIGGING SOUTHWARD WITHIN THE TROUGH...AND WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED EASTWARD ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRES DURING THE PAST 24-36 HOURS AND WAS LOCATED FROM SW LOUISIANA ACROSS THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO EASTERN MEXICO. HOWEVER...CONTINUED COLD NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT INDUCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH HAS PRODUCED A SECONDARY COLD FRONT STRETCHED NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALES TO NEAR MANZANILLO THEN SW OVER WATER TO 13N110W TO 11N120W. THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WERE REPORTED TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL INTERIOR MEXICO NEAR THE COLD FRONT. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND INTO THE W GULF OF MEXICO BY SAT...AND DRAG THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT EAST AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR PUERTO ANGEL ON THE PACIFIC COAST. OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS OFFSHORE OF MEXICO...STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE GRADUALLY DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH NW WINDS 20 KT LINGERING NW OF THE FRONT TO ABOUT 116W AND N TO NEAR 28N...AS WELL AS INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-25 KT THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND WITHIN 150 NM OF THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM 23N TO 28N. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH SEAS IN LARGE NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS NW OF THE FRONT...WITH SEAS GENERALLY 9-15 FT NW OF THE FRONT...BETWEEN 125W AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. HIGH SEAS ACROSS THE OUTSIDE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS THE SWELL MOVES SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE TROPICS...SUBSIDING TO 8-12 FT BETWEEN 120W AND THE MEXICAN COASTLINE ALONG 100W N OF 10N BY THU AFTERNOON...AND TO 6-8 FT BY FRI AFTERNOON. VERY LARGE SURF AND DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MEXICAN COASTLINE TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING. NW OF THE FRONT...A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 29N123W AND EXTENDS A BROAD RIDGE SE TO NEAR 22N115W AND ALSO W- SW TO BEYOND 21N140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE S OF THE RIDGE IS SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FRESH NE TO E TRADE WINDS GENERALLY FROM 03N TO 21N W OF 115W. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 9 TO 11 FT ACROSS THIS AREA IN PREDOMINANTLY NW SWELL. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...REDUCING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...THUS DECREASING THE WINDS TO MODERATE TO FRESH WITH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT. A NEW COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING EXTENDS FROM 31N136W TO 26N140W. FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS ARE WITHIN ABOUT 200 NM E OF THIS FRONT WITH SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH FRI. MEANWHILE...A REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS 30N140W THU AND WILL MERGE WITH THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT ON FRI. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND SWELL WILL BUILD SEAS TO 16 FT BEHIND THIS REINFORCING FRONT. $$ STRIPLING