000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090922
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC WED MAR 09 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.              
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N85W ALONG 4N92W 4N98W TO 1N106W.
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 3N111W ALONG 1N117W 2N122W TO BEYOND 3.4S139W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM
OF TROUGH BETWEEN 86W AND 89W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF 1.5N BETWEEN
136W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SHARP MID TO UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN
MEXICO AND THE SW U.S. SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT HAS SWEPT
ACROSS THE FULL LENGTH OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...AND NOW EXTENDS FROM COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 22N105.5W
TO 18N109W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 16N116W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE FRONT TO 24N E OF
109W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. MARINE CONDITIONS HAVE BEGUN TO
IMPROVE WITH NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT OCCURRING N OF THE FRONT AND E
OF 120W TO THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS W WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 KT SE OF THE FRONT 20N. THE LARGE SEAS THAT HAD A
MAXIMUM OF 20 FT HAVE BEGUN TO SUBSIDE TO 17 FT CONTINUING IN NW
SWELL. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY MORNING.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT W OF BAJA WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WINDS GRADUALLY FALLING OFF
TO 15-20 KT...AS THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER MEXICO
BY THU NIGHT. THE AREA OF HIGH SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS
SWELL PROPAGATES SE...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8 TO 14 FT N OF 14N
BETWEEN 102W AND 130W BY WED NIGHT...AND 8 TO 11 FT N OF 10N
BETWEEN 101W AND 122W BY THU NIGHT.

THE SAME FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS PUSHED PAST SINALOA MEXICO. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAS ALSO
WEAKENED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS...WITH NW WINDS AT 20-25 BETWEEN
24N AND 29N WITH SEAS ARE TO 8 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE GULF AND FALL BELOW 20 KT
AND 8 FT SEAS BY WED AFTERNOON.  

TO THE NW OF THE FRONT...A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 29N129W AND EXTENDS A BROAD RIDGE S TO THE ITCZ AND
W-SW TO JUST S OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE FRONT OVER MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
FURTHER THROUGH WED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE S OF THE RIDGE
IS SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E
TRADE WINDS GENERALLY FROM 10N TO 17N W OF 117W. SEAS ARE
GENERALLY 9-11 FT ACROSS THIS AREA IN PREDOMINANTLY NW SWELL.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...REDUCING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...THUS DECREASING THE
WINDS TO MODERATE TO FRESH WITH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING FROM 12-17
KT TO 8-12 FT. 

$$
PAW