000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090333
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0405 UTC WED MAR 09 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.              
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 09N86W TO 03.5N103W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 04N110W TO 02N120W TO BEYOND 00N130W THEN CONTINUES S OF
THE EQUATOR TO BEYOND 140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 94W
AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED FROM 01.5N TO 05N
W OF 136W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A SHARP AND ENERGETIC MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MEXICO AND THE SW U.S. TONIGHT...AND HAS
CROSSED 110W. THIS FEATURE HAS SUPPORTED A COLD FRONT THAT HAS
SWEPT ACROSS THE FULL LENGTH OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA...AND EXTENDS FROM COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 24N106.5W
TO 20N110W TO 17N120W. MARINE CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED VERY
LITTLE ACROSS THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH NWLY
WINDS STILL 20-30 KT OCCURRING N OF THE FRONT AND E OF 120W TO
THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. UNUSUALLY LARGE SEAS PREVAIL
THERE...AT 12 TO 20 FT IN STRONG NW SWELL. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
W OF BAJA WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH WINDS GRADUALLY FALLING OFF TO 15-20 KT...AS THE DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH AND FRONT MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD. THE AREA OF
HIGH SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS SWELL PROPAGATES SE...WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8 TO 14 FT N OF 16N BETWEEN 102W AND 127W BY
WED AFTERNOON...AND 8 TO 12 FT N OF 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W BY
THU AFTERNOON.

THE SAME FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS PUSHED SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ENTRANCE TO THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INTO S
PORTIONS OF SINALOA MEXICO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INSIDE THE
GULF HAS ALSO WEAKENED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS...WITH NW WINDS AT 20-
25 BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND 24N...WHERE SEAS ARE 6-9 FT. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE GULF AND
FALL BELOW 20 KT AND 8 FT SEAS BY WED AFTERNOON...AND THEN
INCREASE BRIEFLY WED NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS TO 20-25 KT. 

TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT...A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 29N130W AND EXTENDS A BROAD RIDGE S TO THE ITCZ AND
W-SW TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE E OF
THE HIGH BETWEEN IT AND THE FRONT HAS WEAKENED MODESTLY SINCE
TUE MORNING AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN FURTHER THROUGH WED. THE
PRES GRADIENT TO THE S OF THE RIDGE IS SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
FRESH NE TO E TRADEWINDS GENERALLY S OF 21N AND W OF 118W. SEAS
ARE GENERALLY 8-12 FT ACROSS THIS ZONE IN PREDOMINANTLY NW
SWELL. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND REDUCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH WINDS AND SEAS
SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 15-20 KT AND 8-9 FT. 

SOUTHEAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COLD FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING S-SW FROM THE MEXICAN COAST ALONG WEST PORTIONS OF
GUERRERO HAS HELPED TO CAPTURE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE
TROUGH AND TO ITS EAST. THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
JETSTREAM ENERGY HAVE MOVED ACROSS THIS FEATURE TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 14N TO COAST
BETWEEN 98W AND 101W. THIS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT E-SE ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND MOVE E OF THE ACAPULCO AREA. 

$$
STRIPLING