000 AXPZ20 KNHC 082218 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE MAR 08 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... NW GALES HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 29.5N131W AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NW MEXICO HAS WEAKENED MODESTLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS DEEP LAYERED AND EMBEDDED WITHIN A SHARP MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SW U.S. AND MEXICO...AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT HAS SWEPT ACROSS THE FULL LENGTH OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND EXTENDS FROM COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 26N107.5W TO 22N110W TO 19.5N120W. MARINE CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED VERY LITTLE ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY...WITH NWLY WINDS STILL 25-30 KT OCCURRING N OF 22N AND E OF 122W TO THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. UNUSUALLY LARGE SEAS PREVAIL THERE...AT 12 TO 22 FT IN STRONG NW SWELL. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT W OF BAJA WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WINDS GENERALLY FALLING TO 15-20 KT...AS THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH AND FRONT MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD. THE AREA OF HIGH SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS SWELL PROPAGATES SE...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8 TO 14 FT N OF 16N BETWEEN 102W AND 127W BY WED AFTERNOON...AND 8 TO 12 FT N OF 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W BY THU AFTERNOON. THE SAME FRONTAL SYSTEM PRODUCING NORTHWEST TO NORTH GALES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ENTRANCE TO THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INSIDE THE GULF HAS ALSO WEAKENED...AND GALES HAVE ENDED...WITH WINDS NW AT 20-25 BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND 25N...WHERE SEAS ARE 8-10 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE GULF AND FALL BELOW 20 KT AND 8 FT SEAS BY WED AFTERNOON. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 08.5N87W TO 03.5N102W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N110W TO 01N125W TO BEYOND 02.5N140W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N OF ITCZ W OF 133W. ...DISCUSSION... AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29.5N131W AND EXTENDS A BROAD RIDGE S TO THE ITCZ AND W-SW TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE S OF THE RIDGE IS SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE FRESH NE TO E TRADEWINDS GENERALLY S OF 18N AND W OF 120W. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 8-12 FT ACROSS THIS ZONE IN PREDOMINANTLY NW SWELL. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND REDUCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 15- 20 KT AND 8-9 FT. SOUTHEAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COLD FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S-SW FROM THE MEXICAN COAST ALONG MICHOACAN HAS HELPED TO CONVERGE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ITS E. THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JETSTREAM ENERGY HAVE MOVED ACROSS THIS FEATURE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 14N TO COAST BETWEEN 99W AND 103W. THIS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE ACAPULCO AREA. $$ STRIPLING