000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072125
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
2205 UTC MON MAR 7 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.              

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO NE WATERS FROM 30N118W TO
28N123W TO 30N129W WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE BAJA CALIF PENINSULA
INTO NW MEXICO TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS W OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE IN ABOUT
12 HOURS LATE TONIGHT. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY TUE WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE TUE NIGHT.
THE STRONG NW WINDS WILL BUILD MAX SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS
OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 22-24 FT BY TUE MORNING. 
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N85W TO 03N101W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 03N105W TO 01N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 29N133W WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO NEAR
30N126W THROUGH WED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF
HIGH PRES AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING
FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER WESTERN WATERS N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 06N
TO 10N SHIFTING NORTHWARD TO 14N-18N W OF 128W TUE. LARGE AREA
OF NW SWELL DOMINATES MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH 8-12 FT
SEAS COVERING MUCH OF THE REGION W OF 100W. A COLD FRONT WILL
REACH 30N140W IN NW WATERS WED AFTERNOON...WITH AN INCREASE IN
WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED NW OF LINE FROM 30N135W TO 25N140W WED. 

WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE AREA TIGHTENS. W WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR
LESS BY LATE TUE AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. 

$$ 
MUNDELL