000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062130
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
2205 UTC SUN MAR 6 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.              

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL INDUCE A HIGH-AMPLITUDE
TROUGH TO FORM JUST WEST OF CALIFORNIA MON. THE TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN TUE AND BECOME A STRONG CUTOFF LOW OVER NW MEXICO WED. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH 30N BY MON AFTERNOON. HIGH PRES
BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF NW GALE
FORCE WINDS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 18-20 FT
MON NIGHT WITH 20-24 FT MAX SEAS EXPECTED TUE BEFORE DIMINISHING
TUE NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE IN 48 HOURS WITH
MAX SEAS SUBSIDING TO 15-16 FT TUE NIGHT.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

SURFACE TROUGH FROM 09N86W TO 03N97W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N97W
TO 00N120W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
04N TO 07N BETWEEN 87W AND 96W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N119W TO 23N135W. ASCAT
SHOWS MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A LARGE
AREA OF 12-16 FT NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH MON MORNING BEFORE MERGING WITH THE NW SWELL ACCOMPANIED
BY A NEW COLD FRONT MON AFTERNOON. THE SECOND FRONT WILL INDUCE
FRESH TO STRONG WESTERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE
MON INTO EARLY WED. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 8 FT.  

SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE NE TRADE WINDS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 10-20N
W OF 125W MON THROUGH WED...WITH WINDS OCCASIONALLY REACHING 20-
25 KT AND SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 10-11 FT IN MIXED NE WIND
WAVES AND PRE-EXISTING NW SWELL.

$$ 
MUNDELL