000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061604
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1605 UTC SUN MAR 6 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.              

...SPECIAL FEATURE...GALE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... 

A SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE IN THE JET STREAM CURRENTLY OVER THE
HIGH LATITUDES OF THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL INDUCE A HIGH-AMPLITUDE
TROUGH TO FORM JUST WEST OF CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY.  THE TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN ON TUESDAY AND BECOME A STRONG CUTOFF LOW OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.  AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
REACH OUR NORTHERN BORDER OF 30N BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  BECAUSE
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH A
SURFACE LOW SETTING UP OVER NORTH MEXICO/TEXAS ON TUESDAY...NW
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE
MONDAY AND EARLY ON TUESDAY.  THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AS WELL AS THEIR ENSEMBLE
MEANS/PROBABILITIES. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AS WELL WILL BE
QUITE HIGH WITH 18 FT SEAS COMMENCING MONDAY EVENING AND
DIMINISHING BY TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF-BASED WAVE
MODELS SHOW A PEAK OF ABOUT 24 FT SEAS TUESDAY MORNING JUST WEST
OF NW BAJA CALIFORNIA.  WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW A STRONG BREEZE
AND SEAS BELOW 12 FT WEST OF BAJA ON THURSDAY.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N90W TO 02N102W TO 01N115W TO 02N128W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 180
NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 100W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N122W TO 24N137W.  FORCING FOR THIS
FRONT IS WEAKENING AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  ONLY WINDS OF MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AT THIS TIME.  THERE DOES EXIST A
LARGE 12 TO 16 FT NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THIS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING BEFORE MERGING
WITH THE NW SWELL ACCOMPANIED BY A NEW COLD FRONT ARRIVING
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEW COLD FRONT WILL ALSO CAUSE WINDS WITHIN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA TO REACH STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY.  THESE ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME TO
PRODUCE WAVE HEIGHTS OF AT LEAST 8 FT.

MODERATE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO IS FORCING A
NEAR GALE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH PEAK
WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 10 FT.  THIS EVENT SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND
DROP TO FRESH BREEZE AND BELOW 8 FT BY MONDAY MORNING.  

SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE NE TRADEWINDS WILL OCCUR UP TO STRONG
BREEZE CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  WAVE HEIGHT WILL GO
UP TO 11 FT IN MIXED NE WIND WAVES AND PRE-EXISTING NW SWELL.

$$ 
LANDSEA