000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060946
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1005 UTC SUN MAR 6 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.              
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N91W TO 02N102W TO 02N115W TO 02N131W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ
AXIS BETWEEN 91W AND 98W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE AREA FROM 30N127W
TO 24N140W. 0456 UTC ASCAT DATA INDICATES SW WINDS TO 25 KT EAST
OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
THESE WINDS AND ALSO SHOW WINDS TO 25 KT TO THE WEST OF THE
FRONT TO 133W. AN ALTIMETER PASS AT 0330 UTC CONFIRMS SEAS TO 
13 FT ALONG 30N JUST WEST OF THE FRONT NEAR 128W...WITH MODELS
INDICATING MAX SEAS TO 17 FT NEAR 30N133W. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER EAST THIS MORNING AND DISSIPATE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SHORT WAVE AMPLIFYING N OF 35N WILL
PRODUCE A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA WITH A NEW
AREA OF STRONG W-NW WINDS DEVELOPING BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE E PACIFIC WATERS. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL
SPREAD SE MON AND REACH 30N BETWEEN 120W-130W MON AFTERNOON...
WITH 30-35 KT WINDS ARRIVING W OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA MON
NIGHT AND TUE AS THE LOW PUSHES SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO INTO BAJA
CALIFORNIA. BOTH WW3 AND NWPS WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS
BUILDING TO 20-25 FT N OF 27N E OF 122W TUE MORNING. A GALE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED AT 06Z FOR AREAS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO
120W N OF 27N. THIS AREA OF GALES MAY REACH AS FAR S AS 25N
DURING THE DAY TUE BEFORE THE WINDS DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY
TUE EVENING. 
 
HIGH PRES IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW GAP WINDS TO
MAINTAIN THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC AT 25-30 KT THROUGH TODAY...THEN
DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT MON AFTERNOON ONCE DRAINAGE EFFECTS WEAKEN.

FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA N OF 27N W OF
135W TUE NIGHT AND WED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SEAS TO 13 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THAT
TIME. 

$$ 
LATTO