000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052125
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
2205 UTC SAT MAR 5 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.              
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 00N92W TO 01N117W TO 06N130W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE AREA FROM 30N135W
TO 27N140W. 1830 UTC ASCAT DATA SHOWS SW WINDS TO 25 KT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND NW WINDS TO 30 KT W OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
SHIFT E OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN...WITH MAX SEAS TO 16-17 FT. A NEW
AREA OF STRONG W-NW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE AMPLIFYING
N OF THE REGION TO PRODUCE AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING
INTO CALIFORNIA WILL REACH 30N BETWEEN 120W-130W MON THEN SPREAD
30-35 KT WINDS SOUTHWARD W OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA MON NIGHT
AND TUE AS THE LOW PUSHES INTO S CALIFORNIA. WW3 MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS SEAS BUILDING TO 20-25 FT N OF 27N E OF 122W TUE MORNING.
WILL ISSUE A GALE WARNING AT 00Z ONCE TIME FRAME REACHES 48 HRS. 
 
HIGH PRES IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW GAP WINDS TO
INCREASE THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC TO 25-30 KT LATE TONIGHT...THEN
DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT MON AFTERNOON ONCE DRAINAGE EFFECTS WEAKEN.

$$ 
MUNDELL