000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050325 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT MAR 5 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N91W TO 02S109W TO 06N126W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 01S TO 03N BETWEEN 112W AND 121W. ...DISCUSSION... LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD TODAY. STRONG SW WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NW WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL LOSE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SUN...AND EXTEND FROM 30N122W TO 25N130W TO 23N140W. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF REINFORCING NW SWELL THAT WILL PROPAGATE E-SE GENERALLY REMAINING N OF 22N THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE AMPLIFYING N OF THE REGION MON WILL SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING INTO N CALIFORNIA WITH A TRAILING FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS BY MON AFTERNOON AND NW WINDS GREATER THAN 30 KT POSSIBLE WITHIN 300 NM OF THE COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS BUILDING TO 20-25 FT BY MON NIGHT. STRONG SW TO W WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 24N TUE. BUILDING HIGH PRES ACROSS THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW GAP WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC OVERNIGHT REACHING TO 30 KT SAT MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING BELOW 20-25 KT SAT AFTERNOON AS DRAINAGE EFFECTS WEAKEN. ANOTHER WEAKER PULSE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ELSEWHERE...DRAINAGE EFFECTS AND HIGH PRES IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL INDUCE FRESH GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EARLY SAT. $$ MUNDELL