000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042125 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI MAR 4 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 01N95W TO S OF EQUATOR NEAR 04S108W TO 00N120W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 05N BETWEEN 111W AND 130W. ...DISCUSSION... LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD THROUGH SAT MORNING. STRONG SW WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NW WATERS SAT. THE FRONT WILL LOSE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SUN...AND EXTEND FROM 30N122W TO 25N130W TO 23N140W. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF REINFORCING NW SWELL THAT WILL PROPAGATE E-SE GENERALLY REMAINING N OF 22N THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MON...A SHORTWAVE N OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AND SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE TRAILING FRONT WILL EXTEND INTO THE NORTH- CENTRAL WATERS BY MON AFTERNOON WITH NW WINDS GREATER THAN 30 KT POSSIBLE WITHIN 300 NM OF THE COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS BUILDING TO 20-25 FT BY MON NIGHT. STRONG SW TO W WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 24N TUE. BUILDING HIGH PRES ACROSS THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW GAP WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC FRI NIGHT REACHING TO 30 KT SAT MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING BELOW 20-25 KT SAT AFTERNOON AS DRAINAGE EFFECTS WEAKEN. ANOTHER WEAKER PULSE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ELSEWHERE...DRAINAGE EFFECTS AND HIGH PRES IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL INDUCE FRESH GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EARLY SAT. $$ MUNDELL