000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041538
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1605 UTC FRI MAR 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.              
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...                         
ITCZ FROM 01N96W TO 03.4S108W THEN RESUMES NEAR 03.4S115W TO
01N123W TO 00N127W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 01N TO 03N BETWEEN
94W AND 99W...AND S OF 09N BETWEEN 111W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...                                               
LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IN EXCESS OF 12 FT ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISSIPATED FRONT WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT NORTHWARD THROUGH SAT
MORNING. BY SAT...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN WATERS. THE FRONT
WILL LOSE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND GRADUALLY THROUGH
SUN AND EXTEND FROM 30N122W TO 25N130W TO 23N140W. IN WAKE OF
THE FRONT...A NEW ROUND OF REINFORCING NW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
PROPAGATE E-SE GENERALLY REMAINING N OF 22N THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BY MON...A SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION IS
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AND SUPPORT THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE AREA TO
MOVE INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE TRAILING FRONT WILL
EXTEND INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS BY MON AFTERNOON WITH NEAR
GALE TO POSSIBLE GALE FORCE NW WINDS FORECAST WITHIN 330 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SEAS
BUILDING INTO A RANGE OF 20 TO 25 FT BY MON NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUE. THE STRONG SW TO W WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA N OF 24N BY TUE MORNING.

BUILDING HIGH PRES ACROSS THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW GAP
WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC FRI NIGHT REACHING TO 30
KT SAT MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING BELOW 20-25 KT SAT AFTERNOON
AS DRAINAGE EFFECTS WEAKEN. ANOTHER WEAKER PULSE WILL
MATERIALIZE SAT NIGHT LATE INTO SUN MORNING AND DIMINISH BELOW
20 KT AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ELSEWHERE...DRAINAGE EFFECTS AND HIGH
PRES IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO SAT MORNING.

$$ 
HUFFMAN