000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040920
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1005 UTC WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0915 UTC.               
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 6N77W ALONG 5N80W
7N86W TO 5N91W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 3N91W ALONG 2S107W 2N125W
TO 3N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 113W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
 
LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IN EXCESS OF 12 FT ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISSIPATED FRONT WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT NORTHWARD BY MORNING
THROUGH SAT NIGHT. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PRECEDE A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NW WATERS EARLY SAT. THE FRONT WILL LOSE
ITS SUPPORT AND WEAKEN SAT NIGHT AS IT REACHES FROM 30N126W TO
24N136W BY SUN MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A NEW ROUND OF
REINFORCING NW SWELL INTO THE N WATERS THROUGH EARLY MON. STRONG
TO GALE FORCE NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WITHIN 500 NM ALONG
THE COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA MON INTO TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO 20 FT BY EARLY TUE. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE GULF OF
N OF 24N BY TUE MORNING.


BUILDING HIGH PRES OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW GAP
WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC FRI EVENING REACHING TO 30
KT...THEN DIMINISH BELOW 20-25 KT SAT AFTERNOON AS DRAINAGE
EFFECTS WEAKEN. A SECOND WEAKER ROUND WILL PULSE AGAIN SAT NIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING SUN NIGHT. DRAINAGE EFFECTS AND HIGH PRES IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS THROUGH
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FRI MONRING THEN WILL PULSE A SECOND TIME
FRI NIGHT. WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20 KT S OF PANAMA BUT WILL
WEAKEN TO MODERATE BY MORNING. 

$$ 
PAW