000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031605
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1605 UTC TUE MAR 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.               
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 09N83W TO 04N90W. ITCZ FROM
04N90W TO 01N110W TO03N130W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01N TO 05N BETWEEN 122W AND 125W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALSO NOTED FROM S OF 02N BETWEEN
132W AND 138W. 

...DISCUSSION...
 
N OF 15N E OF 120W...FAIRLY WEAK RIDGING EXTENDS FROM 1020 MB
HIGH PRES NEAR 28N125W TO SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE WEAK
PRES PATTERN IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
ACROSS MOST THE AREA WITH SEAS 5 TO 7 FT OUTSIDE OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. EXPECTED WAVE HEIGHTS WERE A LITTLE TO HIGH JUDGING
BY SEVERAL RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES...AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
ACCORDINGLY THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FARTHER SOUTH AN ASCAT
PASS FROM YESTERDAY EVENING INDICATED A STRONG PULSE OF GAP
WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BUT THIS HAS LIKELY
DIMINISHED SINCE THIS MORNING. ALSO A SHARP UPPER TROUGH ALONG
ROUGHLY 105W WAS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA N OF 15N E OF 105W...BUT THIS HAS
SINCE DIMINISHED AS WELL. 

BUILDING HIGH PRES OVER THE NW GULF WILL ALLOW A RESURGENCE OF
GAP WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING
REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE. THIS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH LATE SAT
MORNING AS OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE EFFECTS WEAKEN...BUT A SECOND
SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND MORE SHORT LIVED PULSE WILL EMERGE SAT NIGHT
AGAIN. THE WEAK HIGH PRES WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZES ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...ALTHOUGH WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE WITH THE ARRIVAL THE NEXT ROUND OF NW
SWELL MOVING E OF 120W BY EARLY FRI...AND E OF 110W THROUGH MID
SAT. LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE BAJA AREA BY
LATE SAT...WITH STRONG WESTERLY GAP WINDS PUNCHING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUNDAY. STRONG NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION N OF 20N LATE SUN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH NW WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING GALE
FORCE BETWEEN GUADELUPE ISLAND AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST BY
EARLY TUE...AND SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. 

S OF 15N E OF 120W...OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE EFFECTS AND HIGH PRES N
OF THE AREA STRONG GAP WINDS WILL PULSE THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO THROUGH TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE RESULTANT
SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL WILL MIX DOWNSTREAM TO THE WEST OF 90W
WITH ONGOING 8 TO 9 FT SEAS IN MIXED NW AND S SWELL. FARTHER
EAST...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA OF
PANAMA...INCREASING SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL IN AREAS
DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE GALAPAGOS. LOOKING AHEAD...THE GAP WINDS
WILL TAPER OFF SOMEWHAT SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
REINFORCING NW SWELL WILL MAINTAIN 8 TO 9 FT SEAS W OF 90W.

ELSEWHERE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED FROM 30N131W TO
24N140W AND WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY FRI.
ACCOMPANYING NW SWELL IN EXCESS OF 12 FT WILL MOVE SE AND COVER
MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 120 BY LATE FRI. STRONG WINDS WILL FOLLOW
A SECOND FRONT MOVING SE OF 30N140W BY EARLY SAT...REACHING FROM
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TO 25N135W BY EARLY SUN. THE ACCOMPANYING
STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SAT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF
25N W OF 120W...BUT A NEW ROUND OF REINFORCING NW SWELL WILL
MOVE INTO THE WATERS N OF 20N W OF 130W THROUGH LATE SUN.
  
$$
CHRISTENSEN