000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022120
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
2205 UTC WED MAR 2 2015 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N86W TO 02N97W TO 04N115W TO 00N134W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
 
LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS
NW WATERS EXTENDING FROM 30N134W TO 25N140W WILL SWEEP SE-WARD
ACROSS THE AREA W OF 110W THROUGH SAT AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. AN
ALTIMETER PASS AT 1500 UTC SHOWED MAX SEAS TO 17 FT NEAR 30N140W
AND 8 FT SEAS N OF 24N W OF 135W. 8-12 FT SEAS WILL BE W OF A
LINE FROM 30N122W TO 18N140W BY FRI MORNING. THE NEXT STRONG
FRONT REACHING 30N SAT WILL PRODUCE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS N OF
28N AND ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW SWELL TO REINFORCE THE CURRENT
SWELL EVENT OVER NW WATERS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GALE CONDITIONS
N OF 31N SAT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO
SEE IF A GALE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED IF GFS AND ECMWF TREND TO
STRONGER WINDS. 

HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 29N126W WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH FRI NIGHT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. EXPECT TRADE WINDS TO
REMAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE W OF 110W THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING FROM 8-9 FT TO 6-7 FT.

STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
BY THU MORNING WITH SEAS REMAINING BELOW 8 FT. FRESH TO STRONG
NE WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EACH NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. PERIODS OF FRESH NNE WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT
THROUGH THU MORNING...WITH SEAS TO 5-6 FT.

$$
MUNDELL