000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020948
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1005 UTC WED MAR 02 2015 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.               
  
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A STRONG N SURGE CURRENTLY OF
20-25 KT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BRIEFLY
TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT NEAR 14.5N95W. THE N WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 20 TO 25 KT ON THU AND TO 20 KT OR LESS
EARLY FRI WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY THU NIGHT.
ANOTHER STRONG SURGE TO NEAR GALE SURGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ON FRI AND SAT NIGHTS.    

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 09N87W TO 03N93W WHERE
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ FORMS AND CONTINUES W
TO 06N105W...THEN TURNS SW TO BEYOND 00N133W. ISOLATED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 05N89W TO 05N107W TO 02N132W TO 04N140W. 

...DISCUSSION...
 
ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MEANDER FROM
25N120W TO BEYOND 15N101W THROUGH SAT WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE N
FLOW ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS AROUND THE RIDGE...EXCEPT
INCREASING TO 15-20 KT/SEAS 6-8 FT NEAR THE N COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA ON THU. COMBINED SEAS OF 4-7 FT OBSERVED ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 110-120W. SEAS WILL BUILD
FROM THE W ON THU AND FRI AS ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW SWELL
PROPAGATES E ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SEAS TO NEAR 12 FT REACHING
NORTHERN BAJA ON FRI NIGHT. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON SAT.
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA N OF 27N BEGINNING ON SUN. THE POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WITH STRONG NW WINDS EXPECTED N OF 25N
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA LATE MON. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SUN. A STRONG SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SUN NIGHT. 
 
ELSEWHERE S OF 15N E OF 110W...NOCTURNAL PULSES OF STRONG ENE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS...AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A STRONG NORTHERLY SURGE IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT WILL SPREAD S INTO THE AREA NEAR 14N96W
TODAY...AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE STRENGTH NEAR
15N95W BRIEFLY TONIGHT. THE N WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR
LESS ON THU...BUT THE RESULTANT N SWELL WILL PROPAGATE S IN THE
FORM OF 7-10 FT SEAS REACHING NEAR 06N103 ON THU NIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING. REMNANT NE...S AND NW SWELL CURRENTLY MIXES ACROSS
THE WATERS S OF 12N W OF 96W RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9
FT. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY THEN BE REINFORCED
BY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NE SWELL ORIGINATING NEAR THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC.  

ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS SUPPORTING STRONG
TO NEAR GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NW PORTION AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE E REACHING A
POSITION FROM 32N132W TO 25N140W TODAY AS THE ASSOCIATED WINDS
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL FROM 32N128W
TO 24N140W ON THU...THEN DRIFT W AND GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY ON
FRI. LARGE NW SWELL WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO 20 FT NEAR 31N140W. THE EASTERN BOUNDARY OF SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER WILL REACH A LINE FROM 32N126W TO 14N140W ON THU...AND
FROM 32N117W TO 23N127W TO 24N140W ON FRI. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 23N ON FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN
ACCOMPANIED BY A SW-W-NW MINIMAL GALE FORCE WIND SHIFT ACROSS
THE WATERS N OF 29.5N ON SAT.

$$
NELSON