000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011537
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1605 UTC TUE MAR 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.               
  
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG N WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE ON WED EVENING...THEN INCREASE TO
MINIMAL GALE FORCE BRIEFLY WED NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11
FT. THE N WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON THU
WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT ON THU NIGHT. ANOTHER
STRONG SURGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON FRI AND SAT NIGHTS.    

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 05N90W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 05N90W TO 02N109W TO BEYOND 01N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN105W TO 110W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ
BETWEEN118W AND 123W. 

...DISCUSSION...
 
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1022 MB CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 31N128W
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 18N109W AND SW TO BEYOND 23N140W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ.
TRADES WILL MAINTAIN IN THE MODERATE TO FRESH RANGE THROUGH THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SUBSIDING NW SWELL MIXING WITH SOUTHERLY
SWELL IS COVERING MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT FOUND S OF 13N W OF 93W. THIS SWELL
WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND BY
EARLY WED MORNING SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL COVER THE AREA 05N
TO 13N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FAR NW WATERS LATE TONIGHT. STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS WILL BE
FOUND E OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE NW WATERS. THE FRONT
WILL ALSO USHER IN A FRESH SET OF NW SWELLS INTO THE AREA WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 20 FT BY WED EVENING. 

GAP WINDS... 

WINDS WILL PULSE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. WINDS WILL PEAK NEAR 25 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE
FLOW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. 

$$
AL