000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010946 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE MAR 01 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A STRONG N SURGE OF 20-25 KT WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS THIS MORNING...THEN THE N WINDS WILL DIMINISH BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER TODAY. STRONG N WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT...AND THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE ON WED EVENING...THEN INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BRIEFLY WED NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT NEAR 14.5N95W. THE N WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON THU WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT ON THU NIGHT. ANOTHER STRONG SURGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON FRI AND SAT NIGHTS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 09N84W TO 03N102W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ FORMS AND CONTINUES WSW TO 02N110W TO BEYOND 00N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINES FROM 06N87W TO 01N110W...AND FROM 08N110W TO 03N125W TO 03N140W. ...DISCUSSION... A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MEANDER FROM 25N120W TO BEYOND 15N103W THROUGH SAT WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE N FLOW ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS AROUND THE RIDGE...EXCEPT INCREASING BRIEFLY TO 15-20 KT NEAR THE N COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON THU. COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 110-120W WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY...WITH 4-7 FT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6-8 FT AGAIN ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N ON THU...THEN CONTINUE TO BUILD ON THU NIGHT AS ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW SWELL PROPAGATES E ACROSS THE AREA WITH SEAS OF 12 FT REACHING NORTHERN BAJA ON FRI NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDING ON SAT. INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA N OF 27N BEGINNING ON SUN NIGHT. LIGHT TO GENTLE NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY... BUT INCREASING TO MODERATE TONIGHT INTO WED ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS. A STRONG SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SUN NIGHT. ELSEWHERE S OF 15N E OF 110W...NOCTURNAL PULSES OF STRONG ENE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS...AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH FRI NIGHT. REMNANT NE...S AND NW SWELL MIXES ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 13N W OF 94W RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH WED. A STRONG NORTHERLY SURGE WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT...AND EXTEND S INTO THE AREA NEAR 14N96W ON WED AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE STRENGTH NEAR 15N95W ON WED NIGHT. THE N WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON THU BUT THE RESULTANT N SWELL WILL PROPAGATE S IN THE FORM OF 7-10 FT SEAS REACHING NEAR 09N98W ON THU NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...A SURFACE HIGH MEANDERING NEAR 30N128W IS BLOCKING THE EASTERN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STALL FROM 32N138W TO 29N141W THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY LIFT N OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NW PORTION LATE TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH FROM 32N138W TO 29N140W TONIGHT...WITH MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS PASSING E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN 30-32N. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE E REACHING A POSITION FROM 32N132W TO 25N140W ON WED AS THE ASSOCIATED WINDS DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL FROM 32N127W TO 24N140W ON THU NIGHT...THEN DRIFT W AND GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY ON FRI. LARGE NW SWELL WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH THE EASTERN BOUNDARY OF SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER REACHING A LINE FROM 32N128W TO 17N140W ON THU...AND FROM 32N116W TO 20N135W ON FRI. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 23N ON SAT ACCOMPANIED BY A SW-W-NW NEAR GALE FORCE WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 29N. $$ NELSON