000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292152
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
2205 UTC MON FEB 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 05N101W. ITCZ FROM
05N101W TO 02N110W TO 00N130W TO 01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ W OF 135W.  

...DISCUSSION...

1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 31N130W
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 18N110W AND SW TO BEYOND 24N140W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ.
TRADES WILL REMAIN IN THE MODERATE TO FRESH RANGE THROUGH THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SUBSIDING NW SWELL MIXING WITH SOUTHERLY
SWELL IS COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SEAS GREATER
THAN 8 FT FOUND GENERALLY W OF 100W. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND BY LATE WED SEAS OF  8
FT OR GREATER WILL SHRINK TO AN AREA FROM 04N TO 10N GENERALLY W
OF 130W.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW WATERS BEFORE
SUNRISE WED WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING ALONG
AND WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN A
FRESH SET OF NW SWELLS INTO THE AREA WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR
20 FT BY LATE WED. 

GAP WINDS... 

MID-DAY SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATED THE GAP WIND EVENT OF THE
PAST FEW DAYS HAS ENDED...WITH AN AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS
NOTED WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE FROM NEAR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO
10N90W. THE GAP WINDS WILL PULSE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH PEAK VALUES OF
25 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. GAP WIND FLOW BECOMES
MORE STEADY OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING WED. THE GAP
WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA HAVE DECREASED BELOW 20 KT PER A
1428 UTC ASCAT-A AND 1520 UTC ASCAT-B PASSES. 

LOOKING AHEAD...

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO MIDWEEK WILL REACH
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WED. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS FUNNELING
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WED
EVENING. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE NEXT GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WED NIGHT. 

$$ 
COBB