000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291546
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1605 UTC MON FEB 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 05N100W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 05N100W TO 03N110W TO01N115W TO 00N140W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
95W AND 110W. 

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR EXTENDS A RIDGE SE
TO NEAR 18N111W AND SW TO BEYOND 27N140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ. TRADES WILL
MAINTAIN IN THE MODERATE TO FRESH RANGE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. SUBSIDING NW SWELL MIXING WITH SOUTHERLY SWELL IS
COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT
FOUND W OF 100W. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND BY EARLY WED MORNING SEAS 8 FT OR
GREATER WILL COVER THE AREA S OF 10N W OF 100W. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT. STRONG TO NEAR
GALE WINDS WILL BE FOUND E OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE NW
WATERS. THE FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN A FRESH SET OF NW SWELLS
INTO THE AREA WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 20 FT BY WED EVENING. 

GAP WINDS... 

THE STRONG GAP WIND EVENT FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS
ENDED. WINDS WILL PULSE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF
PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT DAY. WINDS WILL PEAK NEAR 25 KT DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA. THESE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY TUE
MORNING. 

LOOKING AHEAD...

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO MIDWEEK WILL REACH
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WED. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS FUNNELING
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WED
EVENING. THIS MAY BRING THE NEXT GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT INTO
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WED EVENING. WINDS VEER RAPIDLY OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THE FRONT SO THIS EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE AS LONG LIVED AS THE MOST RECENT EVENT. 
 
$$ 
AL