000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290945
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1005 UTC MON FEB 29 2015 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.               
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 09N85W TO 03N100W WHERE
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ FORMS AND CONTINUES
WSW TO BEYOND 00N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED OVER AND TO THE N OF THE TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS WITHIN 90
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N92W TO 04N126W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A NORTHERLY 20-25 KT NOCTURNAL SURGE IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THIS
MORNING WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT.
ANOTHER STRONG N SURGE IS EXPECTED ON WED MORNING...WITH THE N
WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE LATE WED AND
CONTINUING INTO LATE WED NIGHT. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS THE N
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON THU. A SURFACE
RIDGE WILL MEANDER FROM 24N120W TO BEYOND 15N104W THROUGH FRI.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE FLOW
ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS AROUND THE RIDGE THIS WEEK.
COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN
110-120W WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT THROUGH THU...THEN BUILD
AGAIN FROM THE W ACROSS AREA W OF 110W WITH SEAS TO 11 FT
REACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA LATE
FRI. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA TODAY...THEN BECOMING NW TONIGHT AND INCREASING TO
MODERATE ON TUE. THE NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS BRIEFLY ON TUE NIGHT...THEN THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. 
 
S OF 15N E OF 110W...STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE ENE WINDS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS...AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH
LATE MORNING...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER STRONG NOCTURNAL PULSE EXPECTED BRIEFLY
TONIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN ON WED...THU AND FRI NIGHTS. A NARROW
SWATCH OF STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
WATERS S OF THE PANAMANIAN AZUERO PENINSULA. REMNANT NE...S AND NW
SWELL MIXES ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 92W RESULTING IN COMBINED
SEAS OF 7-9 FT. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT ON
WED.

ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...A SURFACE HIGH
MEANDERING NEAR 30N130W WILL BLOCK THE EASTERN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT TONIGHT...WITH THE FRONT STALLING FROM 32N138W TO 29N141W.
THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY LIFT N OF THE AREA ON TUE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW PORTION ON TUE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL REACH FROM 32N138W TO 29N140W ON TUE NIGHT...
WITH MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS PASSING E ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN
30-32N. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE E REACHING A POSITION FROM
32N132W TO 25N140W ON WED AS THE ASSOCIATED WINDS DIMINISH TO 20
KT OR LESS. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL FROM 32N128W TO 24N140W ON
THU NIGHT. LARGE NW SWELL WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH THE
EASTERN BOUNDARY OF SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER REACHING A LINE FROM
32N128W TO 18N140W ON THU...AND FROM 32N117W TO 25N125W TO
23N140W ON FRI.
 
$$
NELSON