000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282152
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
2205 UTC SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N90W TO 03N103W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
03N103W TO 04N119W TO 01N126W TO 02N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 31N130W. A
RIDGE EXTENDS SE TO NEAR 19N109W AND SW TO BEYOND 26N140W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADEWINDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ. LONG
PERIOD NW SWELL...MIXING WITH SOUTHERLY SWELL IS DOMINATING THE
WATERS W OF 105W WITH SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT COVERING THIS AREA.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
COVERAGE OF THE 8 FT SEAS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY BY TUE MORNING.
A NEW SET OF NW SWELLS WILL REACH THE FAR NW WATERS MON NIGHT.

GAP WINDS...

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS RECENTLY
SHIFTED TO THE NE GULF. WINDS HAVE VEERED AND BECAME EASTERLY
OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. THUS WINDS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE
TERMINATED THIS AFTERNOON. AN ASCAT ON 28/1626 UTC VERIFIED
WINDS LESS THAN GALE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH 20 KT OR LESS BY MON MORNING. SWELL GENERATED
FROM THIS GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS SWELL IS MERGING
WITH NE SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT
AS WELL AS WITH LONG PERIOD NW AND SW SWELL RESULTING IN
COMBINED SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT COVERING MUCH OF THE WATERS
SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 90W AND 110W. THE SEAS WILL START TO
SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT. 

STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS
HELPING PRODUCE THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL DIMINISH WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE
GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH TUE
MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY TUE AFTERNOON.
SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GAP WIND EVENT WILL MERGE WITH THE
SWELL GENERATED BY THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS WELL AS LONG
PERIOD SW AND NW SWELL. 

STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT DAY AND ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT
BY MON AFTERNOON. 

$$
FORMOSA