000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280945 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN FEB 28 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...GALE FORCE N-NE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS 1500 UTC THIS MORNING WITH MAXIMUM SEAS OF 15 FT NEAR 14.5N95.5W. THE SOUTHERLY EXTENT OF SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER IS CURRENTLY REACHING NEAR 08N99W. THE N-NE SWELL FROM THESE N WINDS CONTINUES TO MIX WITH ENE SWELL FROM WINDS IN THE GULFS OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL...AND ALSO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...RESULTING IN SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER ACROSS THE WATERS ROUGHLY S OF 15N BETWEEN 90-110W. THESE SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON MON NIGHT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... BROAD LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER NW COLOMBIA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILING SW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA. OVERCAST LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST FROM 00-07N. SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ FORMS NEAR 06N87W TO AND EXTENDS SW TO 00N118W...THEN NW TO 02N130W...THEN SW TO BEYOND 01S140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM OF 00N89W AND 03N102W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N91W TO 05.5N122W TO 03.5N137W. ...DISCUSSION... ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 24N120W TO 15N97W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH NW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N E OF 120W THIS MORNING...THEN THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH MODERATE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. LIGHT TO GENTLE N-NE FLOW EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 97-120W. COMBINED SEAS OF 8-12 FT ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 110-120W WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY...WITH 5-8 FT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MON AND SEAS OF 4-7 FT BY MID WEEK. GENTLE-MODERATE NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE GULF WATERS N OF 30N THROUGH MON. THE NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS BRIEFLY ON TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE S OF 15N E OF 110W...STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE ENE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS...AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH LATE MORNING. THE NOCTURNAL PULSES TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON MON NIGHT...SHOULD MAX AT 25 KT. THE NE SWELL FROM THESE PULSES CONTINUES TO MIX WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL AND NW-N SWELL FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH COMBINED SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 13 FT NEAR 09N89W THIS MORNING. COMBINED SEAS SHOULD ONLY BUILD TO 9 FT EARLY MON AND EARLY TUE. A NARROW SWATCH OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NNE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF PANAMA TO AS FAR S AS 02N83W TODAY. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX TONIGHT WITH ONLY SMALL PATCHES OF STRONG NE FLOW WITHIN ABOUT 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 07N80W TO 02N84W WITH SEAS OF 5-8 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...A SURFACE HIGH MEANDERING NEAR 30N130W CONTINUES TO BLOCK THE EASTERN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONTS. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR 30N140W THIS MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY LIFT N OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. LARGE NW SWELL IN THE FORM OF COMBINED SEAS OF 8-13 FT CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA W OF 110W WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW PORTION ON MON AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL OVER THE NW WATERS ON MON NIGHT...AND LIFT N OF THE AREA ON TUE. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL REACH 30N140W ON TUE NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A SW-W WIND SHIFT AT MINIMAL GALE FORCE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N W OF 135W. $$ NELSON