000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270949 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT FEB 27 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...GALE FORCE N-NE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN FEB 28 AT 1500 UTC. MAXIMUM SEAS ARE FORECAST TO 18 FT NEAR 14.5N95.5W TODAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY EXTENT OF SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER REACHING NEAR 06N100W AROUND 1200 UTC ON SUN. THE N-NE SWELL FROM THESE N WINDS CONTINUES TO MIX WITH ENE SWELL FROM WINDS IN THE GULFS OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MIX WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL... AND ALSO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL RESULTING IN SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER ACROSS THE WATERS GENERALLY S OF 15N BETWEEN 90-110W THROUGH MON NIGHT WHEN THE SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... BROAD LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER NW COLOMBIA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILING SW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA. OVERCAST LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED FROM 00-05N E OF 82W. SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ FORMS NEAR 04N91W AND EXTENDS SW TO 01S115W...THEN TURNS WNW TO 00N126W...THEN SW TO 03S140W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF THE EQUATOR WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 03N93W TO 02N134W. ...DISCUSSION... ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 25N120W TO 15N102W WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECAST TO MAINTAIN MODERATE N-NE FLOW ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 112-120W...EXCEPT FRESH NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP BRIEFLY ON SUN N OF 28N BETWEEN 120W AND THE BAJA PENINSULA. COMBINED SEAS OF 8-12 FT ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 110-120W WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON SUN...WITH 6-9 FT CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. COMBINED SEAS OF 3-7 FT ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED BETWEEN 97-110W...BUT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO 5-8 FT TODAY... AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH MON BEFORE SUBSIDING ON TUE. GENTLE- MODERATE NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT LIGHT AND VARIABLE EXPECTED OVER THE GULF WATERS N OF 30N THROUGH MON. THE NW FLOW SHOULD INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS ON TUE. ELSEWHERE S OF 15N E OF 110W...STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NOCTURNAL ENE PULSES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS...AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE NIGHTLY PULSES MAXING AROUND 25 KT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE NE SWELL FROM THESE PULSES WILL MIX WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL AND NW-N SWELL FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH COMBINED SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 13 FT NEAR 09N89W ON SUN. A NARROW SWATCH OF STRONG NNE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF PANAMA THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUN EVENING. THE RESULTANT NE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SW REACHING THE EQUATOR NEAR 85W WHILE MIXING WITH SW AND NW SWELL. ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...A SURFACE HIGH MEANDERING NEAR 30N130W CONTINUES TO BLOCK THE EASTERN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONTS WITH THE FRONTS DISSIPATING ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION. LARGE NW SWELL IN THE FORM OF COMBINED SEAS OF 12-16 FT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE E AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL REACH STALL NEAR 30N138W ON SUN. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW PORTION ON MON...AND INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE ON MON NIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. A STRONGER FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON TUE NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A SW-W WIND SHIFT AT GALE FORCE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N W OF 135W. $$ NELSON