000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262150
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
2205 UTC THU FEB 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...

GALE FORCE N-NE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUN MORNING. MAX SEAS WILL PEAK
NEAR 19 FT TONIGHT. SWELL GENERATED BY THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL
MIX WITH ENE SWELL DOWNSTREAM FROM PAPAGAYO IN CENTRAL AMERICA
AND LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL TO PRODUCE A VERY LARGE AREA OF
HIGH SEAS ROUGHLY S OF 15N BETWEEN 90W-105W THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
     
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N91W TO 02N103W TO 04N122W TO 02N140W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN WATERS NEAR 30N128W
EXTENDS A MINOR RIDGE SE TO NEAR 20N110W WHILE A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER NW WATERS FROM 30N132W TO 26N139W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE COLD
FRONT HAS HELPED USHER IN A FRESH SET OF NW SWELLS OVER NW
WATERS WITH 12-18 FT SEAS COVERING THE WATERS NW OF A LINE FROM
30N128W TO 10N140W. A LARGE AREA OF SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT COVER
THE WATERS GENERALLY W OF 100W. THIS AREA OF HIGH SEAS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 

GAP WINDS...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA HAS HELPED GENERATE A GULF OF
PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THIS EVENT IS COVERING
A LARGE ENOUGH AREA THAT THE GULF OF FONSECA IS ALSO AFFECTED BY
WINDS 25 KT OR GREATER. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 11 FT. LATEST GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS SMALL AREA MAX WINDS TO 35 KT SUN AFTERNOON NEAR
THE COAST IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WILL WAIT TO SEE IF OTHER
GLOBAL MODELS FALL IN LINE WITH GFS BEFORE ISSUING GALE WARNING.
NE SWELLS GENERATED FROM THIS EVENT WILL PROPAGATE WESTWARD FROM
THE REGION AND MIX WITH THE NE SWELLS GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT.

20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF
PANAMA THIS EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 9-10 FT SAT. 
 
$$
MUNDELL