000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260945 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI FEB 26 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...GALE FORCE N-NE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN FEB 28 AT 0900 UTC. MAXIMUM SEAS ARE FORECAST TO 19 FT NEAR 14.5N95.5W BETWEEN 0600-1800 UTC ON SAT WITH THE SOUTHERLY EXTENT OF SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER REACHING NEAR 05N100W AROUND 0300 UTC ON SUN. THE N-NE SWELL FROM THESE N WINDS WILL MIX WITH ENE SWELL FROM WINDS IN THE GULFS OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MIX WITH LONG PERIOD SW SWELL...AND ALSO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL RESULTING IN SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER ACROSS THE WATERS GENERALLY S OF 15N BETWEEN 90-104W THROUGH LATE MON WHEN THE SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... BROAD LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER NW COLOMBIA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILING SW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA. OVERCAST LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED FROM 00-07N E OF 82W. SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ FORMS NEAR 04N86W AND EXTENDS SW TO 01N99W...THEN TURNS NW TO 03N103W...THEN WSW TO 01N123W TO BEYOND 02N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N86W TO 03N100W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER AND THE N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 01N107W TO 08N114W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE W PORTION OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 01N134W TO 04N140W. ...DISCUSSION... ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 27N120W TO 15N97W WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTING GENTLE N- NE FLOW ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 98-120W. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME TONIGHT WITH MODERATE N FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 24N AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. COMBINED SEAS OF 6-10 FT ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED BETWEEN 103-120W. THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SOME TODAY...BUT BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER BATCH OF NW SWELL REACHING NEAR 30N140W AT 1500 UTC ON SAT...WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 9-13 FT REACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AROUND 0300 UTC ON SUN. THESE SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE FROM THE N LATER ON SUN. COMBINED SEAS OF 3-7 FT ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED BETWEEN 97- 103W...BUT WILL SOON BUILD TO 5-8 FT...THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT. GENTLE-MODERATE NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE GULF WATERS N OF 30N ON SAT THROUGH MON. THE NW FLOW SHOULD INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS ON TUE. ELSEWHERE S OF 15N E OF 110W...STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NOCTURNAL ENE PULSES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE NIGHTLY PULSES MAXING AROUND 25 KT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE NE SWELL FROM THESE PULSES WILL MIX WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL AND NW-N SWELL FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH COMBINED SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 13 FT NEAR 09N89W ON SAT AND ON SUN. A NARROW SWATCH OF STRONG NNE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF PANAMA AND EXTEND S OF THE PANAMANIAN AZUERO PENINSULA AROUND 2100 UTC TODAY. A STRONGER EVENT IS EXPECTED ON SAT EVENING. THE RESULTANT NE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SW REACHING THE EQUATOR NEAR 85W WHILE MIXING WITH SW AND NW SWELL. ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...A SURFACE HIGH MEANDERING NEAR 30N130W CONTINUES TO BLOCK THE EASTERN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONTS. A STALLING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING SW FROM 30N135W TO 27N140W WILL SOON SLOW AND THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...LARGE NW SWELL FOLLOWS THE FRONT IN THE FORM OF COMBINED SEAS OF 11-19 FT. THE EASTERN EDGE OF SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WILL REACH FROM 32N120W TO 06N140W ON SAT THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL REACH STALL NEAR 30N138W ON SUN. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW PORTION ON MON NIGHT...AND INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE ON TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. $$ NELSON