000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252158
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
2205 UTC WED FEB 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING... 

STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS AND SEAS REACHING NEAR 18 FT PERSIST
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS IN EXCESS
OF 12 FT WILL EXTEND UP TO 500 NM SW OF TEHUANTEPEC BY THIS
EVENING. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED NE SWELL
PROPAGATING WELL W OF THE AREA. THESE SWELLS WILL MIX WITH LARGE
NW SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION TO SET UP AN AREA OF
CONFUSED SEAS IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE FRI AND SAT BETWEEN 95W-110W.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... 

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N87W TO 04N102W TO 05N115W TO 01N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN
110W AND 115W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

N OF 15N E OF 120W...MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS CONTINUE DOWN
THE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA CURRENTLY...BETWEEN 1021 MB
HIGH PRES CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA...AND TROUGHING OVER NW
MEXICO. SEAS ARE LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...BUT 8 TO 10 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL ARE NOTED OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND APPROACHING
THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE SW WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH FRI BUT
SEAS TO 8 FT WITH 16 TO 20 SECOND PERIODS WILL MOVE INTO THE
APPROACHES OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO NEAR CABO CORRIENTES BY
FRI MORNING. THE SWELL WILL DECAY BELOW 8 FT SOUTH OF 25N
THROUGH SAT...JUST AS ANOTHER PUSH OF LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL
WITH 8 TO 12 FT WAVE HEIGHTS MOVES INTO THE REGION...EVENTUALLY
OVERTAKING ALL BUT THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BUT DECAYING TO 8 TO 9
FT BY MON.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG GALE FORCE GAP
WIND EVENT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
HELP TO GENERATE A GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND GULF OF PANAMA GAP WIND
EVENT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE LATER
THIS EVENING. THESE STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SAT MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 11 FT. THE NE
SWELLS GENERATED FROM THIS EVENT WILL PROPAGATE WESTWARD FROM
THE REGION AND MIX WITH THE NE SWELLS GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER
AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PANAMA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR 8 FT BY SAT MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1021 MB IS CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS NEAR 28N132W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 20N110W.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADEWINDS. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL ENABLE
A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.
THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY FRI...BUT BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A NEW SET OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS INTO THE NW WATERS
FRIDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING 12 TO 20 FT BY FRI MORNING OVER THE
AREA N OF 20N W OF 135W. THIS NEW SET OF NW SWELLS WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN THE LARGE AREA OF COVERAGE OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER OVER
THE WESTERN WATERS W OF 110W. 
 
$$
CHRISTENSEN