000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251014 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED FEB 25 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING... STORM FORCE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT...AS VERIFIED BY A 0410 UTC ASCAT PASS ACROSS THE AREA. THESE STORM FORCE WINDS FOLLOW A COLD FRONT THAT HAS SWEPT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 22 FT DOWNSTREAM. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING...BUT STRONG GALES WILL PERSIST INTO FRI...WITH MINIMAL GALES CONTINUING THROUGH SAT. THE DOWNSTREAM PLUME OF WINDS 25 KT OR GREATER AND SEAS IN EXCESS OF 12 FT WILL EXTEND UP TO 500 NM SW OF TEHUANTEPEC BY THIS EVENING. NE SWELL MOVING DOWNWIND...ALONG WITH STRONG PULSES OF ENE SWELL PROPAGATING OUT OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL MIX WELL DOWNSTREAM WITH LARGE NW SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION TO SET UP AN AREA OF CONFUSED SEAS 8-12 FT FRI AND SAT BETWEEN 95W-110W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N86W TO 05N87W TO 03N100W TO 04N110W TO 00N120W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N W OF 120W...NW WINDS 20-25 KT CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...WITH SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. THIS IS OCCURRING DUE TO A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN TROUGHING ACROSS THE AREA AND STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT BASIN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS. THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE NW SWELL PRODUCING SEAS 10-14 FT HAS REACHED THE COASTAL WATERSOF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE OVERNIGHT AND WILL BUILD TO 8-12 FT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY. THIS LARGE NW SWELL WILL REACH CABO CORRIENTES BY LATE TONIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD... THIS NW SWELL WILL PERSIST INTO SAT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OUTSIDE OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING PULSE OF NW SWELL TO 12 FT AND PERIODS TO 20 SECONDS MOVING EAST OF 120W BY SAT NIGHT. GLOBAL WAVE MODELS HAVE UNDERESTIMATED THIS SWELL...WITH RECENT ALTIMETER DATA SHOWING WAVE HEIGHTS W OF 130W RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT HIGHER THAN MODEL FORECASTS...AND OFFICIAL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED ACCORDINGLY. HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MAINLAND MEXICO THROUGH SAT. S OF 15N W OF 110W...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WITH 4-6 FT SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WHEN GAP WINDS WILL INCREASE FIRST THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. ADJACENT AREAS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND GULF OF FONSECA WILL ALSO SEE GAP WIND FLOW INCREASING TONIGHT...WITH A COMBINED PLUME OF NE WINDS REACHING TO 100W LATE FRI. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-11 FT WITH CONTRIBUTIONS FROM LONGER PERIOD NW AND SOUTHERLY SWELL THAT WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA WEST OF 90W THROUGH SAT. STRONG NE WINDS WILL EMERGE OUT OF THE GULF OF PANAMA BY LATE FRI AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRES IS BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA N OF 20N IN THE WAKE OF A NOW DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS S OF 15N W OF 130W. THE LARGE NW SWELL WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE THE ENTIRE REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY SAT...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT REACHING 110W THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOOKING AHEAD...A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL REPEAT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT PUSHING PAST 30N140W FRI THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE BY LATE FRI. A REINFORCING PULSE OF NW SWELL WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH 12-18 FT SEAS MOVING INTO THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 130W BY LATE FRI. $$ STRIPLING