000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250338
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
0405 UTC WED FEB 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...

AN OSCAT PASS FROM 0024 UTC CONFIRMED WINDS TO STORM FORCE
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS EVENING. THE STORM FORCE
WINDS FOLLOW A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO EARLIER...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 22 FT DOWNSTREAM. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THU...BUT STRONG GALES WILL FOLLOW INTO
FRI...WITH MINIMAL GALES PERSISTING THROUGH SAT. THE
DOWNSTREAM PLUME OF WINDS 25 KT OR GREATER AND SEAS IN EXCESS OF
12 FT WILL EXTEND UP TO 500 NM SW OF ITS SOURCE REGION BY LATE
THU. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL DIMINISH MODESTLY THU THROUGH
FRI...BUT REMAIN AT MINIMAL GALE FORCE. NE SWELL ALONG WITH
STRONG PULSES OUT OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL MIX DOWNSTREAM
WITH LARGE NW SWELL TO SET UP AN AREA OF CONFUSED SEAS FRI
BETWEEN 95W-110W.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
06N88W TO 05N87W TO 03N100W TO 04N110W TO 00N120W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 108W AND 112W.

...DISCUSSION... 
N OF 15N W OF 120W...NW WINDS ARE 20-25 KT IN THE CENTRAL GULF
OF CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS TO 8 FT...BETWEEN A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN TROUGHING ACROSS THE AREA AND STRONG HIGH PRES
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH INTO THU AS
THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS. THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE NW SWELL WITH
WAVES 8-12 FT WILL REACH THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA WED NIGHT. NW SWELL WILL REACH CABO CORRIENTES BY LATE
THU. LOOKING AHEAD... THIS NW SWELL WILL PERSIST INTO SAT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION OUTSIDE OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH
ANOTHER REINFORCING PUSH OF NW SWELL TO 12 FT AND PERIODS TO 20
SECONDS MOVING EAST OF 120W BY SAT NIGHT. GLOBAL WAVE MODELS
HAVE UNDERESTIMATED THIS SWELL...WITH RECENT ALTIMETER DATA
SHOWING WAVE HEIGHTS W OF 130W RUNNING 3 TO 6 FT HIGHER THAN
MODEL FORECASTS...AND OFFICIAL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
ACCORDINGLY. HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH SAT.

S OF 15N W OF 110W...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WITH 4-6 FT SEAS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO THU...WHEN GAP WINDS WILL
INCREASE FIRST THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
N OF THE AREA BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA. ADJACENT AREAS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND
GULF OF FONSECA WILL ALSO SEE GAP WIND FLOW THU NIGHT...WITH A
COMBINED PLUME OF NE WINDS REACHING TO 100W LATE FRI. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 8-11 FT WITH CONTRIBUTIONS FROM LONGER PERIOD NW AND
SOUTHERLY SWELL THAT WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA WEST OF 90W THROUGH
SAT. STRONG NE WINDS WILL EMERGE OUT OF THE GULF OF PANAMA BY
LATE FRI AS WELL. 

ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRES IS BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA N OF 20N IN
THE WAKE OF A NOW DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SUPPORTING A
LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS S OF 15N W OF 130W
THROUGH THU. LARGE NW SWELL WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND THU WITH WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT REACHING 120W.
ALTIMETER DATA SHOWS WAVE HEIGHTS OF 14-20 FT IN THE FAR NW
CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY MODESTLY AS
IT PROPAGATES E-SE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH SAT.
LOOKING AHEAD...A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL REPEAT THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT PUSHING PAST 30N140W FRI THEN
STALL AND DISSIPATE BY LATE FRI. A REINFORCING PULSE OF NW SWELL
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH 12-18 FT SEAS MOVING INTO THE AREA
N OF 20N W OF 130W BY LATE FRI.

$$
CHRISTENSEN