000 AXPZ20 KNHC 242152 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE FEB 24 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING... A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO IS DELIVERING GALE FORCE WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVATIONS FROM NEAR COAZACOALCOS ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE ITHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS TO GALE FORCE ALREADY. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO STORM FORCE...NEAR 50 KT...THIS EVENING AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SEAS WILL BUILD ACCORDINGLY...REACHING UP TO 21 FT BY EARLY THU. THE DOWNSTREAM PLUME OF WINDS 25 KT OR GREATER AND SEAS IN EXCESS OF 12 FT WILL EXTEND UP TO 500 NM SW OF ITS SOURCE REGION BY LATE THU. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL DIMINISH MODESTLY THU THROUGH FRI...BUT REMAIN AT MINIMAL GALE FORCE. NE SWELL ALONG WITH STRONG PULSES OUT OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL MIX DOWNSTREAM WITH LARGE NW SWELL TO SET UP AN AREA OF CONFUSED SEAS FRI BETWEEN 95W-110W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N88W TO 04N110W TO BEYOND 00S120W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 96W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N W OF 120W...NW WINDS ARE 20-25 KT IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS TO 8 FT...BETWEEN A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN TROUGHING ACROSS THE AREA AND STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT BASIN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH INTO THU AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS. THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE NW SWELL WITH WAVES 8-12 FT WILL REACH THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WED NIGHT. NW SWELL WILL REACH CABO CORRIENTES BY LATE THU. LOOKING AHEAD... THIS NW SWELL WILL PERSIST INTO SAT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OUTSIDE OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING PUSH OF NW SWELL TO 12 FT AND PERIODS TO 20 SECONDS MOVING EAST OF 120W BY SAT NIGHT. GLOBAL WAVE MODELS HAVE UNDERESTIMATED THIS SWELL...WITH RECENT ALTIMETER DATA SHOWING WAVE HEIGHTS W OF 130W RUNNING 3 TO 6 FT HIGHER THAN MODEL FORECASTS...AND OFFICIAL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED ACCORDINGLY. HAZARDOUS SURFCONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJACALIFORNIA THROUGH SAT. S OF 15N W OF 110W...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WITH 4-6 FT SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO THU...WHEN GAP WINDS WILL INCREASE FIRST THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. ADJACENT AREAS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND GULF OF FONSECA WILL ALSO SEE GAP WIND FLOW THU NIGHT...WITH A COMBINED PLUME OF NE WINDS REACHING TO 100W LATE FRI. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-11 FT WITH CONTRIBUTIONS FROM LONGER PERIOD NW AND SOUTHERLY SWELL THAT WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA WEST OF 90W THROUGH SAT. STRONG NE WINDS WILL EMERGE OUT OF THE GULF OF PANAMA BY LATE FRI AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRES IS BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA N OF 20N IN THE WAKE OF A NOW DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SUPPORTINT A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS S OF 15N W OF 130W THROUGH THU. LARGE NW SWELL WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THU WITH WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT REACHING 120W. ALTIMETER DATA SHOWS WAVE HEIGHTS OF 14-20 FT IN THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY MODESTLY AS IT PROPAGATES E-SE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH SAT. LOOKING AHEAD...A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL REPEAT THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT PUSHING PAST 30N140W FRI THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE BY LATE FRI. A REINFORCING PULSE OF NW SWELL WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH 12-18 FT SEAS MOVING INTO THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 130W BY LATE FRI. $$ CHRISTENSEN