000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241520
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1605 UTC TUE FEB 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO REACHING THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL INDUCE STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY REACH GALE FORCE THIS AFTN.
WIND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING TO REACH STORM FORCE
NEAR 50 KT AROUND MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 15 FT BY
THIS EVENING AND TO 20 FT TONIGHT. THE DOWNSTREAM PLUME OF WINDS
25 KT OR GREATER AND SEAS IN EXCESS OF 12 FT WILL EXTEND UP TO
500 NM SW OF ITS SOURCE REGION BY LATE THU. WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL DIMINISH MODESTLY THU THROUGH FRI...BUT REMAIN AT
MINIMAL GALE FORCE. NE SWELL ALONG WITH STRONG PULSES OUT OF THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL MIX DOWNSTREAM WITH LARGE NW SWELL TO SET
UP AN AREA OF CONFUSED SEAS FRI BETWEEN 95W-110W.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... 
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N83W TO 04N97W TO BEYOND 01S120W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM N AND
120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 91W AND 98W. 

...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N W OF 120W...NW WINDS ARE 20-25 KT IN
THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BETWEEN A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN TROUGHING ACROSS THE AREA AND STRONG HIGH PRES
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECT SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT BY AFTERNOON.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH INTO THU AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS.
THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE NW SWELL WITH WAVES 8-12 FT WILL REACH
THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WED NIGHT. NW
SWELL WILL REACH CABO CORRIENTES BY LATE THU. LOOKING AHEAD...
THIS NW SWELL WILL PERSIST INTO SAT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
OUTSIDE OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING
PUSH OF NW SWELL TO 12 FT AND PERIODS TO 20 SECONDS MOVING EAST
OF 120W BY SAT NIGHT. HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE WED THROUGH SAT.
GLOBAL WAVE MODELS HAVE UNDERESTIMATED THIS SWELL...WITH RECENT
ALTIMETER DATA SHOWING WAVE HEIGHTS W OF 130W RUNNING 3 TO 6 FT
HIGHER THAN MODEL FORECASTS.

S OF 15N W OF 110W...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WITH 4-6 FT SEAS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. GAP WINDS WILL
INCREASE FIRST THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THU AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS N OF THE AREA BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
NW CARIBBEAN SEA. LOOKING AHEAD...ADJACENT AREAS ALONG THE COAST
OF NICARAGUA AND GULF OF FONSECA WILL ALSO SEE GAP WIND FLOW THU
NIGHT...WITH A COMBINED PLUME OF NE WINDS REACHING TO 100W LATE
FRI. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-11 FT WITH CONTRIBUTIONS FROM LONGER
PERIOD NW AND SOUTHERLY SWELL THAT WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA WEST
OF 90W THROUGH SAT. STRONG NE WINDS WILL EMERGE OUT OF THE GULF
OF PANAMA BY LATE FRI AS WELL. 

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IN NW WATERS WILL DISSIPATE
TODAY AS HIGH PRES STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRES N
OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS S OF 15N W OF 130W THROUGH THU. LARGE NW SWELL WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THU WITH WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF
8 FT REACHING 120W. ALTIMETER DATA SHOWS WAVE HEIGHTS OF 14-20
FT IN THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS SWELL WILL
DECAY MODESTLY AS IT PROPAGATES E-SE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA
THROUGH SAT. LOOKING AHEAD...A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL REPEAT THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT PUSHING PAST 30N140W
FRI THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE BY LATE FRI. A REINFORCING PULSE OF
NW SWELL WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH 12-18 FT SEAS MOVING INTO
THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 130W BY LATE FRI.

$$
MUNDELL