000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241002 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE FEB 24 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NW GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT WILL REACH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY REACH GALE FORCE ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND REACH STORM FORCE... NEAR 50 KT...AROUND MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 15 FT BY THIS EVENING AND TO 20 FT TONIGHT. THE DOWNSTREAM PLUME OF WINDS 25 KT OR GREATER AND SEAS OF 12 FT WILL REACH UP TO 500 NM SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE THU...WITH SEAS 8 TO 12 FT MIXED WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL WILL COVER AN AREA FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN ROUGHLY 90W AND 105W THROUGH LATE THU AS WELL. LOOKING AHEAD...WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL DIMINISH MODESTLY THU THROUGH FRI...BUT REMAIN AT MINIMAL GALE FORCE. DOWNSTREAM EASTERLY SWELL FROM THESE GALES ALONG WITH STRONG PULSES OUT OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL MIX WITH DOMINANT AND PERSISTENT NW AND SOUTHERLY SWELL TO SET UP AN AREA OF CONFUSED SEAS FRI AND BETWEEN 95W AND 110W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04.5N88W TO 03N98W TO 01N114W TO BEYOND 01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N AND 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 96W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS W OF 110W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N W OF 120W...WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...BETWEEN A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RESIDENT TROUGHING OVER THE AREA AND STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT BASIN N OF THE AREA. THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT BY AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THU AS THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS. MEANWHILE THE LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE PULSE OF NW SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FT WILL REACH THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE WED AND WED NIGHT. THE WINDS INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH THU...BUT NW SWELL OF 8 TO 11 FT WILL PASS THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS BY THU MORNING...AND REACH CABO CORRIENTES BY LATE THU. LOOKING AHEAD... THIS NW SWELL WILL PERSIST INTO SAT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OUTSIDE OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING PUSH OF NW SWELL 8 TO 12 FT AND PERIODS TO 20 SECONDS MOVING EAST OF 120W BY SAT NIGHT. VERY HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE WED THROUGH SATURDAY. GLOBAL WAVE MODELS HAVE UNDERESTIMATED THIS SWELL...WITH RECENT ALTIMETER DATA SHOWING WAVE HEIGHTS W OF 130W RUNNING 3 TO 6 FT HIGHER THAN MODEL FORECASTS. S OF 15N W OF 110W...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WITH 3 TO 5 FT SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. GAP WINDS WILL INCREASE FIRST THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. LOOKING AHEAD...ADJACENT AREAS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND GULF OF FONSECA WILL ALSO SEE GAP WIND FLOW THU NIGHT...WITH A COMBINED PLUME OF NE WINDS REACHING AS FAR AS 99-100W BY LATE FRI. SEAS WITHIN THIS PLUME WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FT WITH CONTRIBUTIONS FROM LONGER PERIOD NW AND SOUTHERLY SWELL THAT WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA WEST OF 90W THROUGH SAT. STRONG NE WINDS WILL EMERGE OUT OF THE GULF OF PANAMA BY LATE FRI AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHING FROM 30N131W TO 25N140W WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY WED AS SUPPORTING UPPER DYNAMICS LIFT OUT TO THE NE. HIGH PRES BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS MAINLY S OF 15N W OF 130W THROUGH THU. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE LARGE NW SWELL INVADING THE REGIONAL WATERS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT REACHING AS FAR EAST AS 120W BY LATE WED. OVERNIGHT ALTIMETER DATE SHOWED WAVE HEIGHTS OF 15 TO 23 FT MOVING THROUGH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TONIGHT. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY MODESTLY AS IT PROPAGATES EAST AND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH SAT. LOOKING AHEAD...THE SAME PATTERN WILL GENERALLY REPEAT DURING THE NEXTFEW DAYS...WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT PENETRATING SW OF 30N140W BY EARLY FRI BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING LATE FRI. A REINFORCING PULSE OF LARGE NW SWELL WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND DELIVER 12 TO 18 FT SEAS TO THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 130W BY LATE FRI...EVENTUALLY COVERING MOST OF THE AREA W OF 120W WITH SEAS 10 TO 14 FT BY LATE SAT. $$ STRIPLING