000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232154
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
2205 UTC MON FEB 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY WED...AND REACH THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC WED AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
REACH GALE FORCE ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA...AND WILL REACH 45 KT WED EVENING. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY
BUILD TO 15 FT BY WED EVENING AND TO 20 FT WED NIGHT. THE
DOWNSTREAM PLUME OF WINDS 25 KT OR GREATER AND SEAS OF 12 FT
WILL REACH UP TO 500 NM SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE
THU...WITH SEAS 8 TO 12 FT COMPRISED OF LONGER PERIOD NW AND
SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL COVER AN AREA FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 90W AND 105W THROUGH LATE THU AS WELL. LOOKING
AHEAD...WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL DIMINISH MODESTLY THU
THROUGH FRI...BUT REMAIN AT MINIMAL GALE FORCE. DOWNSTREAM
EASTERLY SWELL FROM THESE GALES ALONG WITH STRONG PULSES OUT OF
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL MIX WITH DOMINANT AND PERSISTENT NW
AND SOUTHERLY SWELL TO SET UP AN AREA OF CONFUSED SEAS FRI
BETWEEN 95W AND 110W.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... 
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM FROM 03N105W TO 01N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 03N BETWEEN 110W AND 119W.

...DISCUSSION... 

N OF 15N W OF 120W...WINDS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER ARE
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON...BETWEEN A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN RESIDENT TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND
STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT BASIN N OF THE AREA. THESE WINDS
WILL WILL INCREASE STARTING TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA TO 20 TO 25 KT...EXPANDING TO MOST OF THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY LATE WED WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. MEANWHILE THE
LEADING EDGE OF A NEW PUSH OF NW SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 8 TO 10
FT WILL REACH THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
LATE WED AND WED NIGHT. THE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
DIMINISH THU...BUT NW SWELL OF 8 TO 10 FT WILL PASS THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS BY THU MORNING...AND REACH CABO CORRIENTES
BY LATE THU. LOOKING AHEAD...THE NW SWELL WILL PERSIST INTO SAT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OUTSIDE OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...WITH A REINFORCING PUSH OF NW SWELL 8 TO 12 FT AND
PERIODS TO 20 SECONDS MOVING EAST OF 120W BY SAT NIGHT.
HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH SATURDAY.

S OF 15N W OF 110W...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WITH 3 TO 5 FT
SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. GAP WINDS
WILL INCREASE FIRST THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THU AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. LOOKING AHEAD...ADJACENT AREAS ALONG THE
COAST OF NICARAGUA AND GULF OF FONSECA WILL ALSO SEE GAP WIND
FLOW THU NIGHT...WITH A COMBINED PLUME OF NE WINDS REACHING AS
FAR AS 100W BY LATE FRI. SEAS WITHIN THIS PLUME WILL BUILD TO 8
TO 11 FT WITH CONTRIBUTIONS FROM LONGER PERIOD NW AND SOUTHERLY
SWELL THAT WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA WEST OF 90W THROUGH SAT.
STRONG NE WINDS EMERGE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF PANAMA BY
LATE FRI AS WELL. 

ELSEWHERE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHING FROM 30N132W TO 28N135W
WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY WED AS SUPPORTING UPPER
DYNAMICS LIFT OUT TO THE NE. HIGH PRES BUILDING NORTH OF THE
AREA WILL SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
MAINLY S OF 15N W OF 130W THROUGH THU. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL NW
SWELL INVADING THE REGION WITH WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT
REACHING AS FAR EAST AS 120W BY LATE WED. WAVE HEIGHTS OF UP TO
20 FT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 30N140W TONIGHT...BUT VARIOUS WAVE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS DECAYING TO 10 TO 15 FT OVER MOST OF
THE AREA BY LATE WED...AND 8 TO 10 FT BY LATE THU. LOOKING
AHEAD...THE SAME PATTERN WILL GENERALLY REPEAT WITH A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT PENETRATING SW OF 30N140W BY EARLY FRI BEFORE
STALLING AND DISSIPATING LATE FRI. A REINFORCING GROUP OF LARGE
NW SWELL WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND DELIVER 12 TO 18 FT SEAS
TO THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 130W BY LATE FRI...EVENTUALLY COVERING
MOST OF THE AREA W OF 120W WITH SEAS 12 TO 13 FT BY LATE SAT.

$$
CHRISTENSEN