000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231527
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1605 UTC MON FEB 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY WED...AND REACH THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC WED AFTERNOON. NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
REACH GALE FORCE ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA...AND WILL REACH 45 KT WED EVENING. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY
BUILD TO 15 FT BY WED EVENING AND TO 20 FT WED NIGHT. WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION WILL DIMINISH MODESTLY THU THROUGH FRI...BUT
REMAIN AT MINIMAL GALE FORCE.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... 
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM FROM 03N105W TO 01N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 03N BETWEEN 110W AND 119W.

...DISCUSSION... 

A POWERFUL BUT WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM WELL N OF THE AREA IS
PRODUCING A VERY LARGE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 30N. THIS
VERY LARGE SYSTEM IS DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS FAR NW WATERS
FROM 31N135W TO BEYOND 27N140W. FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH FURTHER TODAY AS THE FRONT MOVES E AND WEAKENS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS GENERATED EXTREMELY LARGE NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT.
MAX SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23-25 FT NEAR 30N140W. SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND WED TO 15-18 FT AND SWEEP EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LARGE
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL STRONGLY IMPACT THE WEST COAST OF THE
U.S. AND BAJA CALIFORNIA EARLY WED THROUGH THU.

A RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. EXTENDS TO A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 28N129W. OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH NE TRADE
WINDS IN THE AREA FROM 04N-10N W OF 130W. THE FRONT MOVING INTO
NW WATERS WILL CAUSE THE HIGH TO SHIFT SW AND PINCH OFF SEPARATE
FROM THE REST OF THE RIDGE LATER TODAY...WHICH WILL WEAKEN TRADE
WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SW WATERS TO 15-20 KT WED THROUGH THU.

GAP WINDS... 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN WATERS N
OF 25N THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO CAUSES PRESSURES TO LOWER OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AND
RISE BEHIND IT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
PRES GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND FRESHEN
NW WINDS THROUGH THE GULF. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8 FT BY
WED MORNING IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTION UNDER PERSISTENT STRONG
WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH WED NIGHT AND THU.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN
WILL INDUCE GAP WINDS THROUGH PAPAGAYO TO 25 KT THU MORNING THEN
PULSE TO 20-25 KT THU NIGHT AND INCREASE TO 25-30 KT FRI MORNING.

$$
MUNDELL