000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230934 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON FEB 23 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... NW WATERS GALE WARNING...A POWERFUL 969 MB STORM SYSTEM WITH MEAN CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46N150.5W TONIGHT IS WEAKENING VERY SLOWLY AS IT MOVES NE...BUT IS STILL PRODUCING A VERY LARGE AREA OF GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS. THIS VERY LARGE AND COMPLEX SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N136W TO BEYOND 27N140W. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING HAVE LIFTED N OF THE AREA...AND CURRENTLY S TO SW WINDS 20-30 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 210 NM E OF THE FRONT AND N OF 26N. WINDS WILL DROP BELOW A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE BY MIDDAY TODAY AS THE FRONT MOVES E AND WEAKENS. THIS POWERFUL SYSTEM HAS GENERATED EXTREMELY LARGE NW SWELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE BUILT TO 22 FT TONIGHT AND WILL PROPAGATE EAST AND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. VERY LARGE NW SWELL...WITH PERIODS IN EXCESS OF 20 SECTIONS...WILL STRONGLY IMPACT THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. AND BAJA CALIFORNIA EARLY WED THROUGH THU. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO HELP INITIATE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TUE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUE AND EARLY WED...AND PASS THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WED AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY REACH GALE FORCE ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...AND WILL REACH 40-45 KT BY SUNSET WED. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 15 FT BY WED EVENING AND TO 20 FT WED NIGHT. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL DIMINISH MODESTLY THU THROUGH FRI...BUT PERSIST AT MINIMAL GALE FORCE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N88W TO 04N97W TO 01N117W TO 00N130W TO BEYOND 01N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 210 NM N AND 60 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 121W. ...DISCUSSION... A STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE W COAST OF NORTH AMERICA EXTENDS A RIDGE S TO A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 36N126W THEN CONTINUES S AND SW TO THE TROPICS BETWEEN 112W AND 140W. OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADEWINDS IN THE AREA FROM 07N- 12N W OF 130W. THE FRONT MOVING INTO NW PORTIONS WILL CAUSE THE HIGH ALONG 36N TO MOVE SW AND PINCH OFF OR SEPARATE FROM THE REST OF THE RIDGE BY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL WEAKEN TRADE WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO THE 15- 20 KT RANGE WED THROUGH THU. GAP WINDS... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED N-NW WINDS AROUND 15 KT THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN WATERS N OF 25-26N BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND CAUSES PRESSURES TO LOWER OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AND RISE BEHIND IT OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND FRESHEN THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE BASIN. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8 FT BY WED MORNING IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THIS AREA UNDER PERSISTENT STRONG WINDS...WITH A LONG FETCH PRODUCING SEAS 6-9 FT BY LATE WED AFTERNOON. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE REGION IN THE PAST 24 HOURS AS THE PRES GRADIENT HAS GRADUALLY RELAXED. NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW IS PRESENTLY PRODUCING A SMALL AND NARROW PLUME OF 20-25 KT ACROSS PAPAGAYO AND DOWNSTREAM TO 97.5W. HOWEVER AFTER SUNRISE...WIND WILL DIMINISH AND FALL BELOW 20 KT BY NOON...AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FRESHEN AGAIN TO 20-25 KT UNTIL THU MORNING. $$ STRIPLING