000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230335
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
0405 UTC MON FEB 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0100 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

NW WATERS GALE WARNING...A 968 MB STORM SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR
43N149W THIS EVENING IS PRODUCING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WELL NW
OF THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT GRADUALLY
WEAKENS. THIS VERY LARGE AND COMPLEX SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA FROM 32N139W TO 30N140W. 30-35 KT WINDS EXTEND ABOUT 90 NM
E AND SE OF THE FRONT. THIS GALE EVENT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE
AREA TONIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW A FRESH TO STRONG
BREEZE BY MIDDAY TUE. ADDITIONALLY...THIS POWERFUL SYSTEM WILL
GENERATE EXTREMELY LARGE NW SWELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN EXCESS OF 20 FT ACROSS THE NW WATERS
LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT...BUT
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE E AND SE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WORK WEEK. THIS VERY LARGE
NW SWELL...WITH PERIODS IN EXCESS OF 20 SECTIONS...WILL STRONGLY
IMPACT THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. AND BAJA CALIFORNIA EARLY WED
THROUGH THU.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
INITIATE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TUE
WILL PASS THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WED AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY REACH GALE FORCE AND WILL BE UP TO
45 KT BY SUNSET WED. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 14 FT BY WED
EVENING. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 04N91W TO 02N110W TO 03N117W TO
01N127W TO 01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 240
NM N AND 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 111W-120W.

...DISCUSSION... 

1031 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON
STATE EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW FROM THE HIGH THROUGH 26N131W TO
20N140W. THE ASCAT-A PASS FROM 1744 UTC ALONG WITH THE BUOY NEAR
09N140W SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS IN THE AREA FROM
06N-12N W OF 128W. THE FRONT DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION WILL CAUSE THE HIGH TO PINCH OFF A WEAKER HIGH CENTER
FARTHER S BY TUE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS THE
DISSIPATING FRONT APPROACHES WED. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT BY WED AS A
RESULT. 

GAP WINDS... 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE ASCAT-A PASS FROM 1648 UTC SHOWED WINDS
WERE A FRESH N-NW BREEZE AT BEST IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
WATERS N OF 25N BY LATE TUE AS A COLD FRONT CAUSES PRESSURES TO
LOWER OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AND RISE BEHIND IT OVER THE U.S.
GREAT BASIN...INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 8 FT BY LATE WED IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THIS AREA UNDER PERSISTENT STRONG WINDS
WITH A LONG FETCH.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO A FRESH BREEZE THIS
EVENING AS THE PRES GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES. NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW SHOULD BRING NE WINDS TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF
20-25 KT TUE BEFORE SUNRISE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE TUE.

$$
SCHAUER