000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222134
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
2205 UTC SUN FEB 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

NW WATERS GALE WARNING...A 968 MB STORM SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR
40N150W THIS AFTERNOON IS PRODUCING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WELL
NW OF THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT
GRADUALLY WEAKENS. THIS VERY LARGE AND COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL DRAG
A COLD FRONT INTO THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. 30-35 KT WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OVER NW
WATERS FROM 29N-32N W OF 137W BASED ON THE 1828 UTC ASCAT-A
PASS. THIS GALE EVENT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE STRONG TO GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE JUST AFTER
SUNRISE TUE. ADDITIONALLY...THIS POWERFUL SYSTEM WILL GENERATE
EXTREMELY LARGE NW SWELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN EXCESS OF 20 FT ACROSS THE NW WATERS LATE
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT...BUT THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE E AND SE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WORK WORK. LOOKING
AHEAD...THIS VERY LARGE NW SWELL WILL STRONGLY IMPACT THE WEST
COAST OF THE U.S. AND BAJA CALIFORNIA EARLY WED THROUGH THU.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 03N90W TO 00N98W TO 02N110W TO
01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS
WITHIN 120 NM N AND 30 NM S OF THE AXIS W OF 137W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

1030 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED ON THE U.S. PACIFIC NW COAST EXTENDS
A RIDGE AXIS SW FROM THE HIGH THROUGH 23N135W TO 20N140W. THE
ASCAT-A PASS FROM 1744 UTC ALONG WITH THE BUOY NEAR 09N140W
SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS IN THE AREA FROM 06N-12N W
OF 128W. THE FRONT DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
WILL CAUSE THE HIGH TO PINCH OFF A WEAKER HIGH CENTER FARTHER S
BY TUE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS THE DISSIPATING
FRONT APPROACHES WED. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW
THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT BY WED AS A RESULT. 

GAP WINDS... 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE ASCAT-A PASS FROM 1648 UTC SHOWED WINDS
WERE A FRESH N-NW BREEZE AT BEST IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
WATERS N OF 25N BY TUE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CAUSES
PRESSURES TO LOWER OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AND RISE BEHIND IT
OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN...INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 8 FT BY WED
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THIS AREA UNDER
PERSISTENT STRONG WINDS WITH A LONG FETCH.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO INITIATE FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TUE WILL PASS THROUGH
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WED AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 25 KT N OF 15N AT THAT TIME. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE 1604 UTC ASCAT-B PASS STILL SHOWED A
SWATH OF 20-25 KT WINDS DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO TO NEAR 10N91W.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE
PRES GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES. NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW SHOULD
BRING NE WINDS TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT EARLY TUE
MORNING WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
AFTER SUNRISE TUE.

$$
SCHAUER