000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221549 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON FEB 22 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE WARNING...STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED W OF A LINE FROM 32N134W TO 27N140W...AND WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BETWEEN 2100 UTC FEB 22 AND 0300 UTC FEB 23...ALL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT REACHING FROM 32N138W TO 29N140W AT 0300 UTC FEB 23. ASSOCIATED WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS AT 1200 UTC FEB 23 WITH THE FRONT REACHING FROM 32N135W TO 26N140W. LARGE POST-FRONTAL NW SWELL WILL MIX WITH LONG PERIOD SE SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 24 FT REACHING NEAR 30N140W AT 0600 UTC FEB 23. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM 32N129W TO 25N140W AT 1500 UTC FEB 23...AND QUICKLY DISSIPATE. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 7-10 FT AT 1800 UTC THU JUST AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES E INTO THE FAR NW PORTION ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER BATCH OF LARGE SEAS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... BROAD LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER NW COLOMBIA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILING SW OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 04N77W TO 03N81W. OVERCAST LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED FROM 02-08N E OF 81W. SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ FORMS NEAR 05N87W AND EXTENDS SW TO 01N99W...THEN WIGGLES WESTWARD BETWEEN THE EQUATOR AND 02N TO BEYOND 00N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINES FROM 06N87W TO 02N96W AND FROM 05N111W TO 01N140W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 24N120W TO BEYOND 15N99W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 112- 120W...BUT THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH THE MODERATE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 1200 UTC FEB 23...AND FURTHER DIMINISHING TO A GENTLE N BREEZE BRIEFLY BETWEEN 06-1200 UTC ON FEB 24. COMBINED SEAS OF 4-7 FT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 110-120W WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WITH 4-7 FT SEAS FORECAST WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE SEAS WILL BUILD AGAIN IN ABOUT 48 HOURS WITH 7-12 FT CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 2100 UTC FEB INCREASING TO GALE FORCE AT 0000 UTC FEB 25. MODERATE TO FRESH NW FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH 1800 UTC FEB 23...THEN THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WITH STRONG NW FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 24N THROUGH 1800 UTC FEB 24...THEN THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH WINDS 20 KT OR LESS BY 1200 UTC FEB 25. S OF 15N E OF 110W...STRONG ENE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-8 FT CURRENTLY ACROSS...AND DOWNSTREAM OF...THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE TO 20 KT OR LESS AND 4-7 FT SEAS BY 1800 UTC TODAY. ANOTHER BRIEF STRONG BURST EXPECTED AT 0600 UTC FEB 23 AND THEN NOT AGAIN TILL 1200 UTC FEB 25. A NARROW SWATCH OF STRONG NNE WINDS ARE OBSERVED S OF THE PANAMANIAN AZUERO PENINSULA WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N80W TO 05N81.5W WITH 5-8 FT SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. THE NEXT TEHUANTEPEC EVENT WILL OCCUR ON WED WITH STRONG-GALE FORCE CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS THE AREA N OF 13.5N BETWEEN 93.5W- 96.5W AT 0000 UTC FEB 25. THE GALE WILL END AROUND 1800 UTC FEB 26...BUT THE RESULTANT NE SWELL WILL MAINTAIN 7-11 FT SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS BETWEEN 90-110W THROUGH FRI. ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...MIXING SE AND NW SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM THE NW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS..BUT THEN QUICKLY BUILD FROM THE NW AS ANOTHER ROUND OF NW SWELL PROPAGATES SE ACROSS THE AREA. $$ NELSON