000 AXPZ20 KNHC 211554 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT FEB 21 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE WARNING...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION N OF 20N W OF 130W THROUGH LATE MON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING STORM N OF HAWAII THAT WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. HOWEVER THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN THE APPROACHING FRONT AND HIGH PRES CENTERED FARTHER EAST TO ALLOW INCREASING WINDS...POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE...NEAR 30N140W BY LATE MON. GFS ENSEMBLE OUTPUT HAS BEEN INDICATING THIS ALTHOUGH THE AREA OF GALES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND LAST ONLY LATE MON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW PRES LIFTS FARTHER NORTH AND THE FRONT STALLS FROM 30N135W TO 24N140W. LOOKING AHEAD...THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF NW SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 8 TO 15 FT AND PERIODS OF 15 TO 18 SECONDS SWEEPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 120W THROUGH MID WEEK. WAVE HEIGHTS TO NEAR 20 FT ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TUE NEAR 30N140W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N88W TO 02N97W TO 03N110W TO 00N130W TO BEYOND 01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N W OF 120W...1025 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 31N127W WITH A TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OFF COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MAINLY BETWEEN CABO SAN LAZARO AND PUNTA EUGENIA AS NOTED IN EARLIER SHIP REPORTS. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MON THEN DIMINISH AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS. NW SWELL WITH 12 TO 15 SECOND PERIODS AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FT ARE ALREADY IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 110W INCLUDING THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY BELOW 8 FT FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH EARLY TUE. MEANWHILE THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL ALSO SUPPORT INCREASED NW WINDS ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY...REACHING 25 KT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF...AND PERSISTING THROUGH MON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 8 FT. LOOKING AHEAD...A NEW ROUND OF LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION BY MID WEEK WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT REACHING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST BY WED NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDING TO 8 TO 9 FT AND REACHING AS FAR AS 105W NEAR CABO CORRIENTES BY LATE FRI. FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LINGERING STRONG GAP WINDS ARE DIMINISHING THIS MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD...A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL BRING STRONG GALES...POSSIBLY STORM CONDITIONS...TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE WED. S OF 15N E OF 110W...FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND OTHER AREAS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TONIGHT...BUT DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT DURING THE DAY MON. STRONG N TO NE WINDS OFF THE AZUERO PENINSULA OF WESTERN PANAMA WILL DIMINISH AS WELL THROUGH LATE MON AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS. GENTLE TO MODERATE FLOW WITH SEAS 4 TO 6 FT WILL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. THIS WILL END OVER THE WATERS N OF 06N BY MID WEEK AS A LARGE PLUME FROM A TEHUANTEPEC GAP EVENT INVADES THE AREA MIXING WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL JUST ARRIVING AS WELL. A STRONG PAPAGAYO GAP EVENT AND POSSIBLY A FONSECA GAP EVENT WILL FOLLOW THE TEHUANTEPEC EVENT LATER IN THE WEEK AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED NW AND SE SWELL IN AN AREA OF MOSTLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WINDS S OF 20N WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT THROUGH LATE TUE AS THE SWELL DECAYS. A NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL WILL RAPIDLY OVER THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST WED AND THU. $$ CHRISTENSEN