000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210336
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
0405 UTC SAT FEB 21 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.                                                  
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N90W TO 01N108W TO 04N125W TO
03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 140 NM N OF
THE AXIS W OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC IS
BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING AT THE SURFACE
OVER N WATERS...WITH 1023 MB HIGH PRES ANALYZED NEAR 31N127W. A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO THE SOUTHERN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. TRADE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS AND THE ITCZ FROM 07N-11N W OF 126W. THE
HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER N WATERS THROUGH SUN AS THE RIDGE
AXIS IS SHIFTED SOUTHEASTWARD BY TROUGHING BUILDING N OF HAWAII.
THIS WILL SHIFT AND EXPAND THE AREA OF TRADE WINDS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO S CENTRAL WATERS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL
BUILD OVER NW WATERS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A COLD FRONT W OF THE
AREA...WITH A FRESH TO STRONG S-SE BREEZE EXPECTED OVER FAR NW
WATERS BY SUN AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL SQUEEZE THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH NORTHWARD BY MON...WITH TRADE WINDS DIMINISHING AND WINDS
INCREASING TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER NW WATERS TO W OF A LINE FROM
32N133W TO 26N140W. SEAS IN THE NW WATERS WILL BUILD TO 10-15
FT IN NW SWELL BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SUN EVENING. 

GAP WINDS... 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...N-NW WINDS WILL REACH A FRESH TO STRONG
BREEZE ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 23N-28N SUN EVENING AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHILE PRESSURES FALL OVER
CENTRAL MEXICO. THE TIGHTEST PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
NORTHWARD IN THE GULF BY MON AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS OVER
ADVISORY CRITERIA EXPECTED FROM 25N-29N LATE MON. SEAS SHOULD
BUILD TO 8 FT LATE MON IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THIS AREA
UNDER PERSISTENT STRONG WINDS WITH A LONG FETCH. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES
TO THE NORTH AND RELATIVE LOW PRES FARTHER SOUTH IN THE DEEP
TROPICS IS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS TO 30
KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS EVENING. THE PRES GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...BUT NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP WINDS AT 30 KT UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE SUN. MAXIMUM SEAS
OF 9-11 FT AREA EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL DROP OFF
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE SUN AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW THE
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT BY SUNSET SUN.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A STRONG PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN AND LOWER PRES TO THE SW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE
FUNNELING WINDS ACROSS NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN COSTA RICA
INCLUDING INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO A
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE THIS EVENING BEFORE OVERNIGHT NIGHT
DRAINAGE EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING WINDS BACK TO NEAR GALE
FORCE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO A
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE MIDDAY SUN THROUGH SUN EVENING...INCREASE
AGAIN TO NEAR GALE FORCE EARLY MON MORNING AND THEN DIMINISH TO
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AFTER SUNRISE MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA SLACKENS. SWELL FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC HAS MIXED WITH THAT FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO
CREATE A LARGE SWATH OF SEAS IN THE 8-9 FT RANGE GENERALLY FROM
03N-11N BETWEEN 94W-110W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SUN
AS NW SWELL CONTRIBUTES TO THE COMBINED SEAS HERE. THIS AREA
WILL SHRINK WESTWARD BEGINNING SUN AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDE BELOW
8 FT BY MON EVENING. 

GULF OF PANAMA...STRONG RIDGING N OF THE AREA SHOULD DRIVE A
TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUN. FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS
FAR SW AS 03N83W DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUN AS THE PRES
GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY
PULSE ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE AREA S-SW OF THE GULF OF
PANAMA TO 05N81W OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING MON
MORNING. 

$$
SCHAUER