000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202152
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
2205 UTC FRI FEB 20 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.                                                  
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 04N90W TO 02N106W TO 02N130W TO
03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM N OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 130W-137W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC IS
BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING AT THE SURFACE
OVER N WATERS...WITH 1025 MB HIGH PRES ANALYZED NEAR 31N127W AT
1800 UTC. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. TRADE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS AND THE ITCZ FROM 05N-13N W OF 130W. THE
HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER N WATERS THROUGH SUN AS THE RIDGE
AXIS IS SHIFTED SOUTHEASTWARD BY TROUGHING BUILDING N OF HAWAII.
THIS WILL EXPAND THE AREA OF TRADE WINDS EASTWARD TO AROUND
120W. AT THE SAME TIME...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BUILD OVER NW
WATERS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A COLD FRONT W OF THE AREA...WITH A
FRESH TO STRONG S-SE BREEZE EXPECTED OVER FAR NW WATERS BY SUN
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL SQUEEZE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH NORTHWARD
BY MON...WITH TRADE WINDS SHRINKING WESTWARD AGAIN AND THE AREA
OF FRESH TO STRONG S-SE WINDS EXPANDING OVER NW WATERS TO W OF A
LINE FROM 32N134W TO 24N140W. 

GAP WINDS... 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...N-NW WINDS WILL REACH A FRESH TO STRONG
BREEZE ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 23N-27N SUN EVENING AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHILE PRESSURES FALL OVER
CENTRAL MEXICO. THE TIGHTEST PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
NORTHWARD IN THE GULF BY MON AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS OVER
ADVISORY CRITERIA EXPECTED FROM 25N-29N. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 8
FT IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THIS AREA UNDER PERSISTENT
STRONG WINDS WITH A LONG FETCH. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES
TO THE NORTH AND RELATIVE LOW PRES FARTHER SOUTH IN THE DEEP
TROPICS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS TO 30
KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE PRES
GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...BUT NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE
FLOW SHOULD KEEP WINDS AT 30 KT UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE SUN. MAXIMUM
SEAS OF 12 FT AREA EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL DROP
OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE SUN AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW THE
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT BY SUNSET.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A STRONG PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN AND LOWER PRES TO THE SW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE
FUNNELING WIND ACROSS NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN COSTA RICA
INCLUDING INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE 1552 UTC ASCAT-A PASS
SHOWED WINDS WERE JUST BELOW GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF
PAPAGAYO. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE THIS
EVENING BEFORE OVERNIGHT NIGHT DRAINAGE EFFECTS BRING WINDS BACK
TO NEAR GALE FORCE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUN. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE MIDDAY SUN THROUGH SUN
EVENING...INCREASE AGAIN TO NEAR GALE FORCE EARLY MON MORNING
AND THEN DIMINISH TO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AFTER SUNRISE MON
AS THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA SLACKENS. SWELL FROM
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS MIXED WITH THAT FROM THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO TO CREATE A LARGE SWATH OF SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE
GENERALLY FROM 02N-12N BETWEEN 94W-112W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST INTO SUN AS NW SWELL CONTRIBUTES TO THE COMBINED SEAS
HERE. THIS AREA WILL SHRINK WESTWARD SUN AFTERNOON INTO MON
AFTERNOON. 

GULF OF PANAMA...STRONG RIDGING N OF THE AREA SHOULD DRIVE A
TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUN. FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS
FAR SW AS 03N83W DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUN AS THE PRES
GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY
PULSE ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE AREA S-SW OF THE GULF OF
PANAMA TO 05N81W OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING. 

$$
SCHAUER