000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201602
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1605 UTC FRI FEB 20 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                    

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM THE
PREVIOUS EVENING AT 04 UTC INDICATED GAP WINDS WERE AGAIN
PULSING TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE INTO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH AND RELATIVE
LOW PRES FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE DEEP TROPICS. THE GALES LIKELY
PERSISTED INTO THE MORNING HOURS ENHANCED IN PART BY OVERNIGHT
DRAINAGE EFFECTS. THE GAP WINDS ARE DIMINISHING TO 30 KT
CURRENTLY...AND WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH EARLY
SUN AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS N OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. SEAS ARE
LIKELY NEAR 14 FT CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BUT WILL
SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISTHMUS BY MID WEEK BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF POSSIBLY STRONG GALES TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY WED
NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN IS FUNNELING ACROSS NORTHERN COSTA RICA AND SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AND OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG
THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. OVERNIGHT NIGHT DRAINAGE EFFECTS ALLOWED
WINDS TO LIKELY REACH GALE FORCE THIS MORNING WITH SEAS TO 11
FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. 
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N90W TO 01.5N130W TO 03N140W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N W OF 120W...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN SUPPORTING
GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ACROSS THE REGION WILL
START TO CHANGE LATER TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE WEST
AGAINST TROUGHING OVER NW MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT NW WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...BECOMING 20 TO 25 KT OVER
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUNDAY WITH SEAS APPROACHING 7 FT OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF. MEANWHILE 8 TO 10 FT SEAS
PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL WITH 12 TO 15 SECOND PERIODS IS PUSHING
INTO THE COASTLINE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE...AND WILL REACH AS
FAR EAST AS SOCORRO ISLAND AND THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
BY MIDDAY SUNDAY BEFORE STARTING TO DECAY BELOW 8 FT FROM EAST
TO WEST THROUGH LATE MONDAY.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...STRONG RIDGING N OF THE AREA WILL DRIVE A
TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA TODAY. 20-30
KT N-NE WINDS CURRENTLY PREVAIL S-SW OF THE GULF OF PANAMA TO
05N80W WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE BY
SUN AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF 8 FT SEAS LINGERING
NEAR 04N81W BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT SUN EVENING. FARTHER
WEST...A LONG PLUME OF SEAS REACHING 9 FT EXTENDS FROM 02N TO
11N AS FAR WEST AS 100W. THIS IS THE RESULT OF NE AND E SWELL
DUE SUCCESSIVE PULSES OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO GAP
WINDS...MIXING WITH LONGER PERIOD NW AND EVEN SOUTHERLY. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
SWELL CONTINUES TO DECAY.

ELSEWHERE...1024 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 31N127W IS
SUPPORTING GENERALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF 20N...WITH 20 TO
25 KT NOTED FROM 07N TO12N W OF 135W. MEANWHILE AN EARLIER PUSH
OF NW SWELL OF MAINLY 8 TO 9 FT COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA WEST OF
110W. THE HIGH PRES CENTER WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST RELATED TO A DEEP LOW PRES AREA N OF HAWAII IN THE N
CENTRAL PACIFIC. LOOKING AHEAD...SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL INCREASE OVER THE WATERS N OF 26N W OF 135W SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY REACHING NEAR GALE BY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DIMINISHING INTO TUE MORNING AS THE FRONT PASSES 140W. A NEW
ROUND OF NW SWELL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS
N OF 20N W OF 130W THROUGH MID WEEK.

$$
CHRISTENSEN