000 AXPZ20 KNHC 200952 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI FEB 20 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND RELATIVELY LOW PRES FARTHER S IN THE DEEP TROPICS IS SUPPORTING PERSISTENT GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF EARLIER TONIGHT HAVE INCREASED TO 40 KT OVERNIGHT DUE TO ENHANCEMENT BY NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SAT BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATE THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM SEAS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 12-14 FT RANGE. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO A MAXIMUM OF AROUND 8 FT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY SUN AFTERNOON AS WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO A STRONG BREEZE. BY SUN EVENING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 25 KT. SWELL GENERATED DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS MIXED WITH SWELL FROM THE PAPAGAYO REGION TO CREATE A LARGE SWATH OF SEAS IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE GENERALLY FROM 03N-13N BETWEEN 94W-124W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SUN AS NW SWELL CONTRIBUTES TO THE COMBINED SEAS HERE. GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA BROUGHT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS TO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FRI EVENING. WINDS HAVE SINCE INCREASED TO 25-35 KT...OR MINIMAL GALE FORCE DURING THE NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM OF DRAINAGE FLOW. MAXIMUM SEAS DOWNWIND HAVE BUILT TO 10 FT AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 11 FT BY SUNRISE WITHIN 100 NM OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20-30 KT AND BELOW GALE FORCE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND PULSE AGAIN EARLY SUN...BUT ONLY REACH 30 KT. BY SUN AFTERNOON...A NARROW BAND OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL LIE DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO TO 09N90W. WINDS WILL AGAIN PULSE BRIEFLY TO 25-30 KT SUN NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 KT MON AFTERNOON. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02.5N92W TO 02.5N102W TO 03N136W TO BEYOND 03.5N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180NM N OF AXIS W OF 125W. ...DISCUSSION... WEAK HIGH PRES RESIDE OVER THE N WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING... CENTERED ON A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 31N125W. OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED TRADE WINDS ARE A FRESH BREEZE AT BEST...EXTENDINGFROM THE ITCZ N TO 20N AND GENERALLY W OF 120W...EXCEPT FOR THE LONG PLUME EXTENDING DOWNWIND FROM TEHUANTEPEC TO 120W. HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD JUST N OF THE AREA AS THE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. THE STRONGEST TRADE WINDS SHOULD SHIFT E INTO S CENTRAL WATERS AS A RESULT...WITH ONLY A NARROW ZONE OF STRONG TRADES FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W EXPECTED. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY N OF HAWAII ON SUN AND WINDS AT THE SURFACE BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRES WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS WATERS N OF 20N W OF 130W...REACHING 20-25 KT OVER FAR NW WATERS SUN. A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NE WATERS HAS DISSIPATED OVERNIGHT. NW SWELL GENERATED BEHIND THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED SEAS 8 TO 10 FT OVER MOST OF THE NW HALF OF THE AREA...WITH A MAXIMUM OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE COAST AS HIGH AS 11 FT AND JUST N OF THE AREA. SEAS OVER 8 FT WILL GRADUALLY WORK S ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THROUGH THIS EVENING. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PANAMA...STRONG RIDGING N OF THE AREA WILL DRIVE A TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA TODAY. 20-30 KT N-NE WINDS CURRENTLY PREVAIL S-SW OF THE GULF OF PANAMA TO 05N80W WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE BY SUN AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF 8 FT SEAS LINGERING NEAR 04N81W BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT SUN EVENING. $$ STRIPLING