000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200414
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
0405 UTC FRI FEB 20 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0100 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                    

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRES OVER WESTERN MEXICO AND RELATIVELY LOW PRES FARTHER S
IN THE DEEP TROPICS IS SUPPORTING PERSISTENT GALE FORCE WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS
CURRENTLY IN THE GULF WILL INCREASE TO 40 KT WITH THE NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT BEFORE DIMINISHING
BELOW GALE FORCE AFTER SUNRISE ON SAT. MAXIMUM SEAS EARLY SAT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 13-15 FT RANGE. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO A
MAXIMUM OF AROUND 8 FT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY SUN
AFTERNOON AS WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO A STRONG BREEZE. BY
EVENING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA
OF 20-25 KT. SWELL FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS MIXED WITH
THAT FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO CREATE A LARGE SWATH OF SEAS
IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE GENERALLY FROM 03N-13N BETWEEN 94W-122W.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SUN AS NW SWELL CONTRIBUTES
TO THE COMBINED SEAS HERE. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA HAS BROUGHT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS TO THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO GALE FORCE
DURING THE NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM OF DRAINAGE FLOW EARLY SAT. MAXIMUM
SEAS WILL BE AROUND 11 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE
AFTER SUNRISE SAT AND PULSE AGAIN EARLY SUN...BUT ONLY REACH 30
KT. BY SUN AFTERNOON...A NARROW BAND OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS
WILL LIE DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO TO 10N90W. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY SUN EVENING.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 04N93W TO 02N106W TO 03N112W TO
02N118W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150
NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 126W-131W AS WELL AS W OF 136W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM 32N130W TO 21N138W.
THIS FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT RETREATS NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. AN EARLIER FRONT THAT DISSIPATED OVER THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LAST NIGHT BROUGHT NW SWELL WITH SEAS OVER
8 FT TO MUCH OF THE NW HALF OF THE AREA. SEAS OVER 8 FT WILL
GRADUALLY WORK S ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
THROUGH SAT EVENING.. MAXIMUM SEAS JUST OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE COAST WILL BE AS HIGH AS 11 FT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. 

WEAK HIGH PRES LIES OVER N WATERS. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER
PASSES SHOW TRADE WINDS ARE A FRESH BREEZE AT BEST. HIGH PRES
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD JUST N OF THE AREA AS THE PATTERN OVER THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. THE
STRONGEST TRADE WINDS SHOULD SHIFT E INTO S CENTRAL WATERS AS A
RESULT...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 20 KT. A DEEP-LAYERED
TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY N OF HAWAII SUN AND WINDS AT THE SURFACE
BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRES WILL TURN
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS WATERS N OF 20N W OF 130W...REACHING A
FRESH BREEZE OVER FAR NW WATERS SUN. 

GAP WINDS... 

GULF OF PANAMA...STRONG RIDGING N OF THE AREA SHOULD DRIVE A
TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT
THROUGH SAT. 20-30 KT N-NE WINDS CURRENTLY LIE S-SW OF THE GULF
OF PANAMA TO 02N83W WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY SAT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO
20-25 KT SAT AFTERNOON AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BELOW A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE BY SUN AFTERNOON...WITH
ONLY A SMALL AREA OF 8 FT SEAS LINGERING NEAR 04N81W BEFORE
SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT SUN EVENING. 

$$
SCHAUER