000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192150
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
2205 UTC THU FEB 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                    

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRES BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER WESTERN MEXICO AND RELATIVELY
LOW PRES FARTHER S IN THE DEEP TROPICS IS SUPPORTING PERSISTENT
GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE ASCAT-A
PASS FROM 1612 UTC CLIPPED THE EDGE OF THE GULF AND SHOWED WINDS
IN THE 30-32 KT RANGE...SO WINDS ARE BELIEVED TO BE AT LEAST 35
KT IN THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST GAP FLOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE
WITH THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT
BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE BY MIDDAY ON SAT. MAXIMUM
SEAS EARLY SAT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 13-15 FT RANGE. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE TO A MAXIMUM OF AROUND 8 FT IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ON SUN AFTERNOON
AS WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO A STRONG BREEZE. SWELL FROM THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS MIXED WITH THAT FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
TO CREATE A LARGE SWATH OF SEAS IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE GENERALLY
FROM 03N-13N BETWEEN 94W-122W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
INTO SUN. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA HAS BROUGHT NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO GALE FORCE
DURING THE NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM OF DRAINAGE FLOW EARLY
SAT...POSSIBLY REACHING AS HIGH AS 40 KT NEAR THE COAST. MAXIMUM
SEAS WILL BE AROUND 11 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE
AFTER SUNRISE SAT AND PULSE AGAIN EARLY SUN...BUT ONLY REACH 30
KT. BY SUN AFTERNOON...A NARROW BAND OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS
WILL LIE DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO TO 09N94W. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM FROM 03N90W TO 00N110W TO
04N130W TO 03N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE BETWEEN 60 NM-210 NM N OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 128W-133W AS WELL AS W OF 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM 32N130W TO 29N140W. THIS
FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT RETREATS NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
AN EARLIER FRONT THAT DISSIPATED OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA LAST NIGHT BROUGHT NW SWELL WITH SEAS OVER 8 FT TO
MUCH OF THE NW HALF OF THE AREA. SEAS JUST OFF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE COAST WILL BE AS HIGH AS 11 FT IN THE WATERS
JUST OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE.

WEAK HIGH PRES LIES OVER N WATERS. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER
PASSES SHOW TRADE WINDS ARE A FRESH BREEZE AT BEST. HIGH PRES
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD JUST N OF THE AREA AS THE PATTERN OVER THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. THE
STRONGEST TRADE WINDS SHOULD SHIFT E INTO S CENTRAL WATERS AS A
RESULT...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 20 KT. A DEEP-LAYERED
TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY N OF HAWAII SUN AND WINDS AT THE SURFACE
BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRES WILL TURN
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS WATERS N OF 20N W OF 130W...REACHING A
FRESH BREEZE OVER FAR NW WATERS SUN. 

GAP WINDS... 

GULF OF PANAMA...STRONG RIDGING N OF THE AREA SHOULD DRIVE A
TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT
THROUGH SAT. 20-30 KT N-NE WINDS CURRENTLY LIE S-SW OF THE GULF
OF PANAMA TO 02N83W WITH SEAS TO 11 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SAT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING OVER TO
20-25 KT SAT AFTERNOON AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BELOW A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE BY SUN AFTERNOON...WITH
ONLY A SMALL AREA OF 8 FT SEAS LINGERING NEAR 04N81W. 

$$
SCHAUER