000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190327 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU FEB 19 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA AND RELATIVELY LOW PRES FARTHER SOUTH IN THE DEEP TROPICS IS SUPPORTING PERSISTENT GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 40 KT UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE FRI AS THE PRES GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. MAXIMUM SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 15 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE FRI AFTERNOON BUT WILL PULSE TO 40 KT AGAIN WITH THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW EARLY SAT BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE BY MIDDAY ON SAT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO A MAXIMUM OF 9 FT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SAT EVENING. GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA HAS BROUGHT A FRESH TO STRONG NE BREEZE TO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO GALE FORCE DURING THE NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM OF DRAINAGE FLOW EARLY FRI. THIS DIURNAL PULSING...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT. A LONG FETCH OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL EXTEND WELL W OF PAPAGAYO TO AS FAR AS 103W OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS SWELL WILL MERGE WITH SWELL FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO MAKE FOR A LARGE SWATCH OF SEAS IN THE 8- 12 FT RANGE FROM AROUND 03N-13N BETWEEN 94W-121W FRI AND SAT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 06N85W TO 02N103W TO 04N124W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 04N132W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS BETWEEN 210 NM-690 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 112W-119W. THIS CONVECTION LIES IN THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF A SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER JET FOUND ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A TROUGH ALONG 118W. THE JET IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...DIMINISHING THE VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALSO DECREASE THE CHANCE OF CONTINUED CONVECTION HERE ON FRI. ...DISCUSSION... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM PUERTO PENASCO MEXICO ON THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH PUNTA EUGENIA TO 24N120W. THIS FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. NW SWELL ATTRIBUTED TO THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BRING SEAS OVER 8 FT TO MUCH OF THE NW HALF OF THE AREA...INCLUDING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SEAS JUST OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE COAST WILL BE AS HIGH AS 11 FT IN THE WATERS JUST OFFSHORE LATE FRI AND EARLY SAT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE. WEAK HIGH PRES LIES IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOW TRADE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE. HIGH PRES WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS A SECOND FRONT IS EXPECTED FAST ON ITS HEELS. THIS FRONT WILL CLIP N WATERS FRI WITH LITTLE FANFARE BEFORE WEAKENING AND RETREATING N. A NEW FRONT WILL APPROACH NW WATERS SAT. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A FRESH BREEZE OVER NW WATERS SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A RESULT. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PANAMA...STRONG RIDGING N OF THE AREA SHOULD DRIVE A TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT THROUGH SAT. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS CURRENTLY BELIEVED TO BE S- SW OF THE GULF OF PANAMA TO 05N81W WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE BY MORNING AND WILL REMAIN 20-30 KT UNTIL SAT AFTERNOON WHEN THE PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO SLACKEN. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9- 11 FT BY FRI MORNING AND WILL SUBSIDE TO 9 FT LATE SAT AS THE WINDS DIMINISH TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE. $$ SCHAUER