000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182148
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
2205 UTC WED FEB 18 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA AND RELATIVELY LOW PRES FARTHER
SOUTH IN THE DEEP TROPICS IS SUPPORTING PERSISTENT GALE FORCE
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 40 KT UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE FRI AS THE
PRES GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. MAXIMUM SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 14-16
FT AND WILL SUBSIDE FRI AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS DIMINISH TO
MINIMAL GALE FORCE. WINDS WILL PULSE TO 40 KT AGAIN WITH THE
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW EARLY SAT AND DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD MIDDAY ON SAT. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA
ALONG WITH LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS WILL ALLOW STRONG TO MINIMAL
GALE FORCE WINDS TO PULSE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO MAINLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH SAT MORNING. A LONG FETCH OF
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL EXTEND WELL W OF PAPAGAYO TO AS
FAR AS 103W OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS SWELL WILL MERGE WITH SWELL
FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO MAKE FOR A LARGE SWATCH OF SEAS
IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE FROM AROUND 03N-13N BETWEEN 94W-121W FRI
AND SAT.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 03N91W TO 01N102W TO 05N128W
THEN RESUMES FROM 04N131W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG BETWEEN 210 NM AND 770 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
112W-120W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEAR ENSENADA MEXICO TO
22N124W. THIS FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. NW SWELL
ATTRIBUTED TO THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BRING SEAS OVER 8 FT TO
MUCH OF THE NW HALF OF THE AREA...INCLUDING ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SEAS JUST OFF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE COAST WILL BE AS HIGH AS 11 FT IN THE WATERS
JUST OFFSHORE LATE FRI AND EARLY SAT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE.

WEAK HIGH PRES LIES IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASSES SHOW TRADE WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED BELOW A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE. HIGH PRES WILL BE
SLOW TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS A SECOND FRONT IS
EXPECTED FAST ON ITS HEELS. THIS FRONT WILL CLIP N WATERS FRI
WITH LITTLE FANFARE BEFORE WEAKENING AND RETREATING N. A NEW
FRONT WILL APPROACH NW WATERS SAT. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A
FRESH BREEZE OVER NW WATERS SAT AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. 

GAP WINDS... 

GULF OF PANAMA...STRONG RIDGING N OF THE AREA SHOULD DRIVE A
STRONGER PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT THROUGH
SAT. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS ARE EXPECTED S OF THE GULF OF
PANAMA TO 03N FRI AND SAT...WITH WINDS REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE
PRIMARILY FROM 05N-07N. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9-11 FT BY FRI
MORNING AND REMAIN IN THIS RANGE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD
MIDDAY SAT.

$$
SCHAUER