000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181544
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1605 UTC WED FEB 18 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA AND RELATIVELY LOW PRES FARTHER
SOUTH IN THE DEEP TROPICS IS SUPPORTING PERSISTENT GALE FORCE
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...REACHING IN EXCESS OF 40 KT
TONIGHT WITH AID OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS WILL PEAK TO
AROUND 15 FT TONIGHT AS WELL. MINIMAL GALES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SAT NIGHT...PEAKING DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA
ALONG WITH LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS WILL ALLOW STRONG TO MINIMAL
GALE FORCE WINDS TO PULSE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO MAINLY
DURING THE OVER NIGHT HOURS THROUGH SUN MORNING.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N90W TO 02N110W TO 05N125W THEN
RESUMES FROM04N130W TO 01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 07N TO
12N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING
GUADALUPE ISLAND THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA TONIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE THROUGH
EARLY FRI. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY FRI...BUT NW SWELL WILL CROSS
120W TONIGHT...REACHING THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY
FRI MORNING...EVENTUALLY REACHING MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS BY LATE SAT WITH 8 TO 9
FT SEAS AND 12 TO 15 SECOND PERIODS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD WEST
OF THE AREA THROUGH FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ALLOWING NW
WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO
INCREASE SAT INTO SUN...REACHING 20 TO 25 KT BY LATE MON. NW
SWELL WILL DECAY BELOW 8 FT OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...FRESH TO STRONG N-NE FLOW WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA AND OFF WESTERN PANAMA. THE COVERAGE
OF THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND WITH PEAK WINDS INCREASING TO 30 KT
BY FRI AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS
ACROSS THE AREA. FRESH N-NE SWELLS GENERATED BY THESE WINDS WILL
PROPAGATE WELL AWAY FROM THE SOURCE REGION TO NEAR 01N85W BY
LATE FRI NIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE
DEEP TROPICS S OF 15N. MIXED SWELL COMPRISED OF OLD LONGER
PERIOD NW SWELL AND SE SWELL IN THE AREA OF THESE TRADES W OF
125W WILL GRADUALLY DECAY BELOW 8 FT FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MEANWHILE A BLOCKING RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER
THE PACIFIC WATERS N OF 20N E OF 130W THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...IMPEDING THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS
APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THROUGH LATE SAT. LOOKING
AHEAD...ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND POSITION
PERSIST...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONGER LOW PRES N OF HAWAII NEAR 35N150W BY EARLY MON. WHILE
THIS WILL LIKELY STAY NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...STRONG TO
EVEN MINIMAL GALE FORCE S TO SW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA
N OF 25N W OF 135W BY LATE MON. REGARDLESS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW AND THE RELATED WINDS...REINFORCING LONGER PERIOD NW
SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS N OF 25N W OF 130W THROUGH LATE
MON.

$$
CHRISTENSEN