000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171557
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1605 UTC TUE FEB 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA AND RELATIVELY LOW PRES FARTHER
SOUTH IN THE DEEP TROPICS IS SUPPORTING PERSISTENT GALE FORCE
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...AND
WILL INCREASE TO STRONG GALE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU.
CURRENTLY MODEL GUIDANCE CAPS WINDS AT 45 KT AT 10-M HOWEVER
WILL NEED TO MONITOR IN CASE MINIMAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS ARE
REACHED. GALE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO UP TO 15-17 FT.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N88W TO 05N120W THEN RESUMES FROM
04N123W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN
105W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N
TO 09N BETWEEN 115W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...WEAK HIGH PRES OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A TROUGH MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. THE TROUGH WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THU...WHICH WILL STALL AND
DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. THE MAIN
IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL INTO FRI...WHEN NW SWELL OF 8 TO 10 FT
AND PERIODS OF 15 TO 17 SECONDS WILL REACH GUADALUPE
ISLAND...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES TO THE WEST AND A TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO
WILL ALLOW NW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY LATE
FRI...EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST
AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUNDAY. 

S OF 15N E OF 110W...A SMALL PLUME OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WIND
FLOW IS BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. A STRONGER SURGE
OF GAP WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH
WINDS PEAKING AROUND 30 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT. FRESH TO
STRONG N-NE FLOW IS ALSO EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE GULF OF PANAMA...BUT MAINLY OFF THE AZUERO PENINSULA OF
WESTERN PANAMA...LATE TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING THU
AFTERNOON...THEN WILL RETURN AND INCREASE TO 20-30 KT LATE THU
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT BY LATE THU NIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES PREVAIL S OF
RIDGING N OF 15N...EXCEPT FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 130W AND 135W
WHERE THEY PEAK AT FRESH TO STRONG. TRADES WILL DIMINISH TO 20
KT OR LESS ACROSS THE BASIN BETWEEN 12-24 HOURS. LONG PERIOD NW
SWELL SPREADING ALL THE WAY TO NEAR 90W AND THE EQUATOR WILL
CONTINUE TO DECAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL IN
EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL ENVELOPE THE WATERS N OF 20N W OF 120W
THROUGH LATE FRI...COVERING THE AREA N OF 12N W OF 110W THROUGH
LATE SAT.

$$
CHRISTENSEN